Story lines Worth Keeping an Eye On
As the second half, or really the latter third, of the NBA
season is in full swing we can’t help but notice several story lines we need to
keep an eye on.
LA’s Playoff Push
I hate writing about the Lakers, but it is starting to seem
their playoff push is coming to fruition.
Utah and Houston are clinging to the 7th and 8th
seed, but it is appearing more likely that the Lakers will jump one of them
into the post season.
The Jazz are the more likely candidates to fall out of the
picture given their awful point guard depth which has left their crunch time
decision making to the young wings of Alec Burks and Gordon Heyward. Their starting PG last night was Earl Watson
and it has typically been Jamaal Tinsley.
Side note, literally every team in the entire league has TWO point
guards better than those two of the Jazz (some have four such as the Pistons
with Calderon, Knight, Stuckey and Bynum.
I’m writing this on a bus, so I don’t really have a good research
tool. The only second string point
guards who are worse than either Earl or JT are Chris Duhon of the
Lakers….and….nope, I’d rather have Livingston and Jeremy Pargo….rather have
Toney Douglas, Beno Udrih, Ish Smith, John Lucas III and AJ Price. (If you know of a worse PG rotation than the
current Utah PG rotation over the last 20 years, place it in the comments
below.)
Also, if the Lakers do get the 8th seed that
really sucks for the Spurs. In recent
memory the Spurs always kick ass in the regular season and get screwed with a
terrible 1st rd match up. The
Grizzlies were just a bad team for them to go against and facing a hot Lakers
team may not be much better either.
Paul Pierce Finding the Fountain of Youth
Have you seen recent Celtic box scores lately? Ya know the ones that show Pierce flirting
with a triple double on a nightly basis like it’s a girl who’s into sternum
scars from across the room (too soon?).
With no PG in tow Pierce has had to take the role of play
maker and has done a remarkable job doing so.
Obviously he and KG form a very efficient pick and roll tandem, but
Paullie is also doing a solid job getting the likes of Green, Bradley and Lee
going offensively. What’s most
impressive of all is how the added play making responsibilities have not
hampered Pierce physically as his minute total has seen a sharp increase since
Rondo’s injury.
Nobody Beats the Wiz
Since the return of Wall the Wizards are well over .500 and
Bradley Beal has looked like a ROY candidate as a result. Washington’s lineup finally makes sense in
the half court with an already established post and kick game with Nene/Okafor
commanding double teams in the post, and now a slash and kick game with Wall’s
arrival. All of this has meant more
“kick outs” for Beal to take full advantage.
Is Dirk Done?
Nobody has really talked about Dallas’ pretty steep decline
this season. The thought was that with
Dirk’s injury the excuses were there.
The interesting thing is; however, Dirk’s return has not helped the Mavs
much. Dallas has a similar record pre
and post Nowitzki’s return and are bracing for a huge shopping spree in the
off-season, but who can they lure to play next to the quickly declining
Nowitzki.
Can Bogut Give the Dubs Anything?
Andrew Bogut must be the most frustrating player to have on
your roster. When he gets healthy and
gives you even 25 MPG, the impacts on both ends of the floor are enormous. Bogut is a very underrated passing big man
who commands double teams and can easily find open shooters like Curry,
Thompson, Barnes and Jack on the perimeter.
Defensively, he has always been part of one of the league’s top 10
defensive units and has had rebounding rates in the top 10% of 4/5s in the
league…again all when healthy.
It seemed roughly a month ago Bogut turned a corner. The Warriors were coming back to Earth a bit
record wise, but Bogut’s return helped propel their winning ways further. Now Andrew is on the shelf again. If he can make it back to full strength by
the playoffs, the Warriors have a solid chance at winning a 1st round
matchup. No Bogut, no second round.
Wait… So Are the Kings Moving?
I am confused here, can someone help me out? I thought the Kings were headed to Seattle,
changing their name to Sonics and bringing back Shawn Kemp for Emahot night. Now it
seems Sacramento had raised some funding or something to get a new arena in
order to save the team, right? Why is
Stern allowing this?
No offense Sacramento fans, aka no one who reads this, you
shouldn’t have an NBA team. Sacramento
is close enough to Oakland/SF area and just doesn’t have the wealth, population
or general basketball care to have an
NBA team. Yes, they used to sell out the
Arco Arena, but that was when the Kings kicked ass earlier last decade and were
the most entertaining team to watch.
They would've sold out if they were in Wyoming.
Seattle got screwed over big time in the OKC move and the
process must come full circle so that Seattle can screw over another team to
retrieve an NBA team. Bring the Kings to
Seattle, if nothing else to hear the millions of comparisons from Cousins to
Kemp (attitude, similar style if you look at older Kemp).
Will Granger's Return Make the Pacers a Threat to Beat the Heat?
In short, no. Hibbert
is really the main player that can dominate a series against the Heat, given the team's weaknesses on the interior. If he can pull together a decent stretch
towards the playoffs and prove his worth as a main post threat…maybe….maybe
they lose in 7.
Can the Raps make the Playoffs after starting 4-19?
Toronto has been pretty smokin’ since the Gay deal…and yes
that trade was a bit off the 180 degree path.
The interesting notion is though that Rudy Gay’s play has been pretty
dreadful as a Raptor. His TS% is sub
50%, yet his usage rate tips 30% on most nights. Sounds like a recipe for high usage, sub par
efficiency. So how is Toronto doing
this?
The emergence of DeMar has been particularly surprising
since Gay’s arrival. The surprise is
that both Gay and DeMar are pretty similar talents, slash heavy wings who
demand a high percentage of possessions and can’t shoot too well from the
perimeter. In all honesty, I thought
this deal was DOA due to the redundancy of wing talent. How would one ever compliment the other?
Yet Toronto is doing it.
It is mainly due to DeMar now finally within his correct usage rate, a
little over 20%. There’s also less
attention on DeMar which allows for him to accelerate to the lane off a Gay
double team and head to the free throw line.
The correct usage rate theory has also helped Kyle Lowry, who may be
playing a bit too passively for my liking, but is still picking his spots
offensively and not forcing the offense on his own either.
So one bad (Gay) is actually producing two positives. That and Bargnani has seen a reduction in
minutes.
That always helps.
So, can Toronto continue and make the playoffs? They are 6 games behind the Bucks at this
point, but have one of the easier schedules the rest of the way. I think it comes down to Friday night’s game
against the Pacers and then obviously Saturday night in Milwaukee. They sweep the weekend, their in,
they don’t…everyone may get fired. If
you think about it, it may be the most desperate situation in the league…more
so than the Lakers.
What a weird way to publish a post. I wrote this on the bus back from work last night and realized this morning that I forgot to publish it, so I re-read some of the stuff and had to mention that edit. Sorry for the awkwardness.