Can the Lakers Win It All? Just Ask Kobe

Should the Lakers be Considered Favorites to win the Title?

 

A poll was done this past week surveying GMs across the league asking them who would win the 2013 NBA Championship.  First off, it is at the very least refreshing to see majority of GMs honest with their teams current situations and not immediately say their own franchise would be crowned champs in 2013 (with the exception of 3 of course).  The poll showed that roughly 70% of General Managers in the league felt the Miami Heat would repeat as champions, followed by 24% for the Los Angeles Lakers and 6% for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Those three seem like plausible choices to receive the O’Brien in July, but the percentages are what’s interesting.  Bear in mind the Miami Heat were a Boston 4^th quarter collapse from not even making the finals this past summer.  They did add some nice shooters in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but their moves pale in comparison to those made by the Lakers.

LA has added a boat load of talent

The Lakers added two eventual Hall of Famers to a team that was already good enough to make the Western Finals last year.  Looking at both lineups briefly the talent level is at least even, one could theoretically make an argument for either Miami or LA being the better team on paper.  Nash/Kobe/MTP/Gasol/Howard or Chalmers/Wade/James/Bosh/Anthony…it’s certainly close…closer than 70% vs. 24%. 

So why are GMs that much more sour on the Lakers chances than the Heat?  Truth is, the percentage for LA should actually be smaller.

The Lakers have extremely efficient performers namely Pau Gasol now joining Steve Nash and Dwight Howard in the fray.  The bigger question is will they all even have enough touches?

Kobe loves his touches

Last season Kobe Bryant occupied over 37% of the Lakers’ possessions when on the floor.  Let’s do some simple Math.  There are 5 players on the floor, so the average player should have a usage rate of 20% (100%/5).   Now the point guard brings the ball up the floor and typically starts many of the team’s sets, so we would expect his usage rate to be above 20%, likely in that 22-23% range.  If we remove that point guard there should be roughly 77% to be split among the remaining 4 members of the unit. 

Let’s dive further.   Last season the Lakers had spot-up point guards on the floor for majority of the time (namely Steve Blake and Derek Fisher) whose usage rates were far lower than a regular point guard, more in the 15-18% range.  Next season Steve Nash should command a usage rate that is more typical with your average point guard, at around 22-23% (which would be a slight dip from his Phoenix days which we can assume since he is going to a team that won’t rely on him as much to be the sole offensive table setter).  So again, that means 77% split among the remaining 4 players: Howard, Gasol, Peace, and of course Mr. Bryant.

If Kobe occupies 37% of possessions then that’s 40% (77% - 37%) to be split among Howard, Gasol and Peace.  Let’s assume Peace occupies the same usage rate he did last season (roughly 15%) then that’s only 12.5% a piece for the most efficient 4/5 tandem in the league in Gasol and Howard, far less than the league average.  You may say why would Peace have any usage rate there?  Even the most defensive minded/ off the ball 3s in the league have usage rates in double figures as they will inevitably have a portion of the possessions run through them just by being on the floor and playing closer to the perimeter (as Peace does).

You may be thinking that last season was an aberration for Kobe, but the Lakers did still have the most efficient 4/5 tandem in Bynum and Gasol and majority of possessions did not go through either of them. 

Are things different now for the Lakers?

Things are a different now with Steve Nash though.  If he runs the offense accordingly you better believe Kobe will see less touches, but how much less?  Also, how many less possessions would he need to occupy for the team to be optimal in offensive efficiency?

Those answers are uncertain, but let’s think conservatively.  Let’s say due to Nash and a fondness to see Howard in the post more, Kobe’s usage rate drops to 30%.  That now means 32% between Howard and Gasol, 16% each and still far less than the league average.  The goal should be to have your most efficient offensive talents see as many touches as possible, or in the Lakers’ case above league average.  In order for that to happen, Kobe would need to play primarily off the ball and drop his usage rate all the way down to 22% (100% - 23%[Nash] – 15%[Artest] – 40%[Howard/Gasol]).  Considering Kobe’s need to be a primary player in crunch time, run perimeter ISO sets and the lack of control Coach Brown has on the Black Mamba that seems unlikely.

Can Kobe learn the ultimate lesson?

Kobe needs to put his ego aside and take a page out of Paul Pierce’s book in Boston.  The Truth welcomed KG and Ray Allen in the summer of 2007 not only with open arms but with a larger share of the team’s possessions.  Pierce’s usage rate dropped dramatically that season but his true shooting percentage increased as the big three led the Celts to their first title in 22 years.  The same could easily be done in Los Angeles, but not if Kobe Bryant has anything to do about it.