Early Tells, Early Predictions

Okay, so I missed the boat for NBA season predictions since, well, the season already started.  I’d rather not throw out a fairly obvious slew of predictions which would include the Heat winning the title and LeBron landing MVP.  Maybe less obvious predictions would be Damian Lillard over Anthony Davis for ROY, Greg Monroe for MIP, and Rick Adelman for COY.

Here are some perhaps more random, but less obvious predictions I will make based on both the early season results, but also trends coming into the season.

Cleveland, Get Excited

We can talk about how it has been a rough few years for Cleveland Cavaliers fans.  Yes, it starts with LeBron leaving, but also continues with the aftermath.  First there was owner Dan Gilbert making the most absurd claim perhaps of all time that the Cavaliers would be champions before the Heat.  I wonder what the Vegas odds would have been that a team with no sign at the time of a franchise player led by Daniel Gibson and Baron Davis’ contract would be closer to winning a title than another in a much more marketable location with three future hall of famers in their prime.  Then you have to point out the JJ Hickson deal.  It was a relatively small blip on the Cavs series of moves over the past few years, as neither player in the move (my man Omri being the piece coming to Cleveland) made any real impact for their respective team.  What is more interesting though is that roughly over a year prior to that trade, Cleveland was being offered Amare Stoudemire for an expiring contract and JJ Hickson.  Cleveland was so high on Hickson that they nixed a deal to net Amare, who may have altered their title chances in James’ last season and instead just dealt the expiring for Antawn Jamison.  Let’s move on to present day.

Cleveland, your savior was always with you and it’s not who you may think 

Kyrie Irving is an incredible young talent who really does everything you want out of a future franchise stud. 

1.       High usage rate combined with high true shooting percentage – check

2.       High usage rate combined with solid assist rate – are you kidding?  Check that sucker

3.       Solid on ball and off ball defense – check, see his synergy stats for more details

4.       Young as hell – he’s not old, check

5.       Solid contract and likeliness of staying long term – likely a check here, but there are no guarantees. 

6.       A great first name the crowd can randomly chant if he’s on fire – two syllables works well….Ky-reee! Ky-reee!  Check Check (actually that chant is for random Czech triple backup center Klabo Foreign).

Guess what though, he’s not the savior.  Spoiler alert, it’s Anderson Varejao.

Varejao, perhaps one of the most underrated centers in the game, is one of the few bigs in the league to consistently have a rebounding rate over 16% (average for a 4/5 is 13%, and yes that 3% difference is bigger than his hair), and a defensive rating above -3.5 each season (indicating the team allows 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor).  It’s no coincidence that Cleveland was flirting heavily with .500 last season until he got hurt.

Cleveland also made a gutsy surprise pick on draft day and selected the overweight, but still efficient Dion Waiters with their 4^th pick.  It’s usually not a great sign when a young rookie has weight issues, especially at the wing, but you can’t deny Dion’s overall game which should make him a consistent top 5 round pick in fantasy basketball roto leagues over the next 10 years.

After those three the Cavs still have solid young bigs of Tyler Zeller and Tristian Thompson not to mention a boat load of cap space in the off-season.   So the final prediction here isn’t that the Cavs will be good, it’s that they are already good. 

Prediction: Cavs will make the playoffs and will beat the Heat in one game of their first round series…and it’s going to be legendary.

Lakers will make a desperation trade at the deadline

 

I don’t think this is going so far out on a limb, but even if things get better for the Lakers, as long as they’re not first in that conference I think they’ll slam that panic button.  First off, originally the prediction was going to be that Mike Brown would be fired by February.  Then I thought about it and felt even if he were fired by February I still think the Lakers will make a big trade. 

So who to trade?  There are several notions to throw out here.  First off, we’ll assume Steve Nash is healthy at this point in time.  The deal could still involve netting a point guard, but that route doesn’t seem as likely with another team not willing to take on Nash and really giving the Lakers something of value they can throw at the 1.  The name to look at yet again has to be Pau Gasol.   Gasol has been in trade rumors for a number of years and is perhaps not only the most underrated player on his team, but one of the more underrated big men in the league.  He would be far more effective on a team with a coach and franchise player that understood how dominant he can truly be given more touches.

Next, let’s determine who would be interested in Pau.  Perhaps the Grizzlies could pair him up with his brother in a deal that could involve Z-Bo and Rudy Gay (not both going to the Lakers, but part of a potential 4 way deal where Z-Bo goes to Brooklyn, Kris Humphries and Rudy Gay go to LA, a future Nets first, Pau Gasol and MWP go to Memphis).  How about the Atlanta Hawks in a deal to snag Josh Smith and add some younger legs to run the floor with Nash?  Heck, even the Celtics could be interested and deal Kevin Garnett and Jeff Green for Pau Gasol and Peace coming to Boston.  Sound crazy?…because it is.

In short, the call here is that LA will both fire Brown and deal Gasol by the deadline with their main targets being youth either at Power Forward seeking Josh Smith or at Small Forward seeking Rudy Gay. 

Stay tuned.

Brooklyn will miss the playoffs and their minds

 

Honestly I didn’t think this was going to happen with D-Will being retained and Crash healthy.  It seems kind of inevitable now though.  The Nets seem to be operating similar to the Knicks when Thomas was at the helm, looking more at players who have a track record of scoring over any other significant statistic (it’s why I mentioned them in the Z-Bo move, how Isiah  would that trade be?).  They have also shelled over 25 million dollars a season to Humphries and Lopez and are already regretting that decision.  Speaking of bad contracts Joe Johnson was another cluster eff word move that got the Nets in further luxury tax land. 

The owner obviously has the money to pay for any excessive tax, but that doesn’t mean early firings for the coach, GM and perhaps a bevy of moves to right the ship.  Looking at the lofty claims the owner has made about when he expects the team to be a title contender, this thing has early millennium Knicks written all over it.

Carmelo Anthony finishes second in MVP voting

 

I can’t believe I just typed that. 

I am as shocked as you are. 

Look, the Knicks have made a series of intelligent moves in the off-season, behaving almost as polar opposites of their cross city rivals.  The success of the team will likely be due to several other key factors not named Carmelo. 

Tyson Chandler being an excellent off the ball defender and having a high rebounding rate, which he typically does (assuming he’s healthy). Ronnie Brewer emerging as the most underrated pick up of the off-season with Felton not being far behind as both have given the team a solid backcourt defensive tandem with high assist rates.  Coach Mike Woodson finding a way to have Amare co-exist with the ball dominant Melo in the half court, perhaps regulating him more to play with the second unit. 

So, I’m not giving that much credit to Melo here.  I just know how MVP voting will work.  The voters don’t look at stats like adjusted plus minus, rebounding or assist rates, or points per possession...you know the ones that lead to wins.  They look at good teams and who leads them in scoring. 

Simply put, the Knicks have a legit chance of finishing the regular season with a 2 seed in the East and with OKC perhaps falling back with the loss of Harden in the West that may be enough for Anthony to steal some MVP votes away from Durant. 

Still, even after that excuse it’s still crazy to believe that can actually happen. 

Just crazy enough to make this prediction…. I still can’t believe I typed this last paragraph.