The All Thanksgiving Duo

Two Players To Be Thankful For on This Thanksgiving Day

If you want to find the best players in the NBA go search for another list.  Here we will discuss the top two players fans, teams, or management should really be most thankful for due to one reason or another.

Paul Pierce

In most cases a player with Pierce's talents either would have demanded a trade mid-way through the last decade when Celtics Basketball took a back seat to the D2 frozen four.  Either that or a team he was on would have explored a trade to completely revamp or rebuild their situation.  Let's examine similar scenarios.

Tracy McGrady was a high scoring, do-it-all offensive wing with Orlando during this same time frame.  Magic fans and management were fed up; however, due to the consecutive strings of first round playoff exits.  This was really not due to McGrady at all as anyone who examines his advanced stats don't speak of his scoring prowess, which is evident when you just look at the box scores, but of his impressive assist rate which was at least 23% (i.e at least 23% of possessions that went through him led to assists) every year since the new millennium.

Yet as we anyone who follows sports knows, the first person to really get a hefty amount of criticism when things don't go as planned for a franchise is the star player.  As a result McGrady was eventually traded to Houston.

How about we go slightly old school...late 80s-early 90s style. 

Charles Barkley was left as the leader in Philadelphia after iconic years from Moshe Malone and Dr J.  Like McGrady though, fans and management were fed up with the early playoff exits and dealt him for a slew of role players which included sharp shooting Jeff Hornacek.

The similar cases though were the results of both Philly and Orlando after they dealt their current franchise players.  The Magic landed a young, but quickly declining Cuttino Mobley and Steve Francis who immediately turned the Magic from playoff hopefuls to Ping Pong promises (eh I don't like the alliteration much either...too bad, not editing).  The Sixers endured a decade of misery while the Suns, Barkley's new team, won the West his first season and enjoyed a slew of 50+ win seasons in the 90s.

The Celtics of course stayed course which is typically riskier. 

Teams are typically afraid to deal their youth at a chance of contention (see Eric Bledsoe with the Clippers...shout out to previous post), but at times are better off doing so since the chances of that young stud really amounting to much is less likely than they realize.  This was the case as far as a few years ago with perceived studs such as Roddy Beabouis of Dallas, Anthony Randolph when on Golden State, Jeff Teague of the Hawks, Omri Casspi earlier when on Sacramento, or Nicolas Batum on Portland.

Teams just need to view their players like stocks.  They need to understand when their market values (i.e. what teams perceive their worth is) are far higher than their book values (what their actual worth is) and cash in on perception.  The Celtics were smart with Pierce.

Danny Ainge did try dealing Paul back in 2005 to Portland for Nick Van Axel's expiring contract and the third pick of the draft which he wanted to use on Chris Paul.  When that deal fell apart, he didn't try dealing Pierce for less than his book value and instead kept him. 

Pierce deserves much of the credit here dodging trade rumors, sticking with a mediocre rosters, and finally reaping the rewards of a major trade to net hall of famers and start a new dynasty in Boston. 

Celtic fans and management need to be thankful for being patient with Paul, not dealing him for less than his worth, and being able to retain this truly underrated ageless wonder.

Zach Randolph

This may sound like a strange player to be on the list. 

Who should be thankful for a black hole, offensive only oriented player? 

Randolph has really had many of these similar labels throughout his career and they are somewhat warranted.  Call him the anti-McGrady, Zach has only had one season in his career (last year in fact) where is assist rate was over 11%.

Unlike some players though, you have to know what you're getting with Zach.  If you need someone to score he's your guy.  If other players need the ball to be successful, look elsewhere. 

As a result Zach was passed through teams that didn't specifically need his skill set and his play and his market value suffered as a result.

First he was in Portland and jockeying with then franchise man, Rasheed Wallace, for minutes touches and technicals.  Portland forced a rebuild and of course shipped him immediately.  Then he came to perhaps a worse situation than the Jail Blazers to the Isiah Thomas Knick era.

The Knicks already had a then young Eddy Curry who needed possessions in the post and of course a slew of chuckers that included Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford and Quentin Richardson.  There was really no room for Randolph with New York's offensive dominated lineup.  Eventually the Knicks realized this and were thankful for unloading Randolph to the Clippers for expiring contracts for the next season. 

Randolph of course didn't fair much better in LA as he was dealt again for pure contract space to Memphis.  What a toll, for a selfish albeit talented player.  Dealt three times in a span of a few years for what really is utter crap.  A Mobley expiring, a Francis contract, and a deal involving Quentin Richardson.  This isn't Ala Albdanley...it's Zach Randolph.

Finally he came to Memphis.

Remember Memphis acquired Randolph more for his contract then his actual talents.  You see Randolph had a unique escalated salary contract which allowed a team to pay a percentage of his contract now and the rest via a loan later.  Because of this, Memphis was able to stay under the minimum salary allowable for a roster and thrifty owner Michael Heisley who was trying to sell the team was thrilled.

Little did Memphis realize they actually netted an All Star for about 5 cents on the dollar. 

Randolph took his aggression from all of those years of under appreciation, quick trades, and fans dogging on him on the rest of the Western Conference.  Zach certainly stuck with it amidst nearly a decade of turmoil and has resurrected his career.  If there was a most improved player over a decade span he certainly earns it. 

Kudos Mr. Randolph...Mr. Pierce as well.  Gobble Squared.

Putting the Crazy LA LA in Los Angeles

What’s been happening in LA?  A Crazy Call You Have to Read to Believe

The Lakers got into panic mode really quickly this season.  What’s even more comical about their recent sense of urgency is that no one is surprised.  Mike Brown let Kobe control the team and had some very questionable coaching decisions in recent memory.  Two major items standout: one micro, one macro.

Micro blunder

Let’s start in the Western Conference finals last season with the Lakers down two to the Oklahoma City Thunder and 7 seconds left on the clock.  The Lakers called time out and coach Brown designed a play that was supposed to get Kobe a clean look and potentially send the series back to LA with the Lakers in control.

Now many of you remember what happened next.  Peace couldn't find a cutting Bryant sprinting away from the ball towards the far corner and instead found an open Steve Blake who missed the three, game over, OKC controls series.

You shouldn't mind that look by Blake.  He’s an efficient spacing point guard who has hit that three on many occasions.  What I do mind is the play itself.  Brown had designed a play where the intended recipient needed to cut away from the ball requiring Peace to turn into Aaron Rodgers in order to make the appropriate pass across the court to find him. 

That play was dissected to death by the media afterwards and opened up many glaring questions around Brown’s late game coaching, particularly due to how hard he defended it afterwards.

Macro blunder

We need to discuss this Princeton offense thing for a moment.  The team just inherited two hall of famers and had arguably the most talented starting lineup in the NBA, certainly the Western Conference.  That also means you have two players who need to learn your system and get acclimated so their talents can take care of the rest. 

Instead of keeping last season’s offensive system which would require only Nash and Howard to learn, Brown opted for a new offense which would require the entire team to learn from scratch.  If you have a lot of changes in your lineup, have the most talented team in the conference, why would you drastically change your offensive set?

Enter D’Antoni

FYI, I don’t hate this hiring. 

Everyone is talking about Phil Jackson and that LA needed to ensure they signed him with such a talented team.  Personally, I’m not buying Mitch Kupchack’s statement that the team was wary of their players fitting well in the triangle.  

I do feel Phil wanted to be GM/Coach of the team and wanted full power or at the very least Mitch felt threatened that this would inevitably occur.  Either way, I likely would have done the same move if I were Mitch. 

Would you hire someone who has already mentioned his goal is to literally take your job in the near future?  Someone who is honored constantly by the media, fans and most importantly your ownership and franchise player? 

Also, don’t sniff at Mike being an assistant with team USA and coaching Kobe during the last several Olympics helping either. 

Finally, there’s obviously the whole Nash familiarity and the ability to run the floor with Dwight Howard at the 5. 

Guess what though.  The Lakers are not what’s interesting that’s happening in LA LA Land. 

Great, the Lakers panicked and hired a new coach.  Good for them.  They still won’t win the West.  Neither will OKC due to Harden leaving and now an over dependency on Westbrook in particular.

You know who will?  That other LA team.  That’s right Johnny, let’s go Clippers!

Why the Clippers are legitimate contenders

Contending teams require, for the most part, the following attributes (yes I like lists).
High usage rate player who combines that with high True Shooting percentage and decent assist rate.  Meet Chris Paul.

High rebounding rate and proper interior defense including good help D – D’Andre Jordan is one of the more polished shot blockers in the league and Blake has shown major progress in this area.

      Quality off ball role players with high true shooting percentages – This may seem like a random little addition for contenders, but think about every championship winner.  They’ve all had role players who were very efficient off the ball shooters (Bulls-Paxson/Armstrong/Kerr, Spurs-Horry/Kerr/Bonner, Lakers-Shaw/Fox/George, Celtics-House/Posey). The Clippers are very strong in this area with Matt Barnes, Chauncey Billups (when healthy), and Caron Butler.

      Complimentary Talent – Blake Griffin is ready to bolt as a number two weapon here and as he and CP3 play more together, his overall game should surely grow as a result.

You know what else the Clippers have?  One of the most underrated role players in the last decade, Matt Barnes.  Barnes has consistently finished in the top 10 unadjusted on-off net rating among wings over the past 5 seasons.  The stat measures the net difference per 100 possessions of a certain player on the court vs. off the court.  Over is career Matt’s units were a net 5 points better when he was on the floor.

Depth is a key factor in the regular season, but strong 6-8 man rotations are needed in the playoffs.  Clippers have both a strong deep rotation to go through 82 games, but also a condensed version that may be stronger than any out West.

Clipper fans need not get too excited though, sorry Clipper Darryl

LA may have one of the worst head coaches in the game in Vinny Del Negro.  Vinny has long been criticized as a poor coach among some of his peers and according to several inside sources of yours truly.

Also, being as close as they are to contention, LA should really cash in their biggest trade chip and net a nice 3^rd banana that could put them over the top. 

Eric Bledsoe is that asset and has shown enough signs that may lead a team to believe he could be their future starting point guard.  The Clippers already have Jamal Crawford who could play point guard some and really only need a body for 10-15 minutes a night behind CP3.  A Chris Duhon, Ish Smith, or even Earl Boykins who is a free agent would do just fine.

Now the fun part. 

Let’s concoct some trade ideas involving Bledsoe, likely Caron Butler since he has a contract that should fit a player in such a role, and everyone’s favorite cherry an extra first round pick.

What can that package net? How about Danny Granger

The Pacers have performed well over the years without Granger in their lineup and are in desperate need of a future point guard.  Look, I don’t love Granger, but he would certainly fit as that off the ball wing that can help Blake and Chris on the offensive end more and keep defenses from trapping on the two All Stars.

The bigger question is whether the Clippers are gutsy enough to make such a move.  They already showed their willingness to push the chips in the pot with the Chris Paul trade, now will they make one final move to help secure their title hopes? 

If they don’t they risk not only losing the Western conference, but perhaps Chris Paul himself to free agency.

LA sure is nuts!  There’s a reason they call it LA LA land…cue cheesy womp womp.   

Early Tells, Early Predictions

Okay, so I missed the boat for NBA season predictions since, well, the season already started.  I’d rather not throw out a fairly obvious slew of predictions which would include the Heat winning the title and LeBron landing MVP.  Maybe less obvious predictions would be Damian Lillard over Anthony Davis for ROY, Greg Monroe for MIP, and Rick Adelman for COY.

Here are some perhaps more random, but less obvious predictions I will make based on both the early season results, but also trends coming into the season.

Cleveland, Get Excited

We can talk about how it has been a rough few years for Cleveland Cavaliers fans.  Yes, it starts with LeBron leaving, but also continues with the aftermath.  First there was owner Dan Gilbert making the most absurd claim perhaps of all time that the Cavaliers would be champions before the Heat.  I wonder what the Vegas odds would have been that a team with no sign at the time of a franchise player led by Daniel Gibson and Baron Davis’ contract would be closer to winning a title than another in a much more marketable location with three future hall of famers in their prime.  Then you have to point out the JJ Hickson deal.  It was a relatively small blip on the Cavs series of moves over the past few years, as neither player in the move (my man Omri being the piece coming to Cleveland) made any real impact for their respective team.  What is more interesting though is that roughly over a year prior to that trade, Cleveland was being offered Amare Stoudemire for an expiring contract and JJ Hickson.  Cleveland was so high on Hickson that they nixed a deal to net Amare, who may have altered their title chances in James’ last season and instead just dealt the expiring for Antawn Jamison.  Let’s move on to present day.

Cleveland, your savior was always with you and it’s not who you may think 

Kyrie Irving is an incredible young talent who really does everything you want out of a future franchise stud. 

1.       High usage rate combined with high true shooting percentage – check

2.       High usage rate combined with solid assist rate – are you kidding?  Check that sucker

3.       Solid on ball and off ball defense – check, see his synergy stats for more details

4.       Young as hell – he’s not old, check

5.       Solid contract and likeliness of staying long term – likely a check here, but there are no guarantees. 

6.       A great first name the crowd can randomly chant if he’s on fire – two syllables works well….Ky-reee! Ky-reee!  Check Check (actually that chant is for random Czech triple backup center Klabo Foreign).

Guess what though, he’s not the savior.  Spoiler alert, it’s Anderson Varejao.

Varejao, perhaps one of the most underrated centers in the game, is one of the few bigs in the league to consistently have a rebounding rate over 16% (average for a 4/5 is 13%, and yes that 3% difference is bigger than his hair), and a defensive rating above -3.5 each season (indicating the team allows 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor).  It’s no coincidence that Cleveland was flirting heavily with .500 last season until he got hurt.

Cleveland also made a gutsy surprise pick on draft day and selected the overweight, but still efficient Dion Waiters with their 4^th pick.  It’s usually not a great sign when a young rookie has weight issues, especially at the wing, but you can’t deny Dion’s overall game which should make him a consistent top 5 round pick in fantasy basketball roto leagues over the next 10 years.

After those three the Cavs still have solid young bigs of Tyler Zeller and Tristian Thompson not to mention a boat load of cap space in the off-season.   So the final prediction here isn’t that the Cavs will be good, it’s that they are already good. 

Prediction: Cavs will make the playoffs and will beat the Heat in one game of their first round series…and it’s going to be legendary.

Lakers will make a desperation trade at the deadline

 

I don’t think this is going so far out on a limb, but even if things get better for the Lakers, as long as they’re not first in that conference I think they’ll slam that panic button.  First off, originally the prediction was going to be that Mike Brown would be fired by February.  Then I thought about it and felt even if he were fired by February I still think the Lakers will make a big trade. 

So who to trade?  There are several notions to throw out here.  First off, we’ll assume Steve Nash is healthy at this point in time.  The deal could still involve netting a point guard, but that route doesn’t seem as likely with another team not willing to take on Nash and really giving the Lakers something of value they can throw at the 1.  The name to look at yet again has to be Pau Gasol.   Gasol has been in trade rumors for a number of years and is perhaps not only the most underrated player on his team, but one of the more underrated big men in the league.  He would be far more effective on a team with a coach and franchise player that understood how dominant he can truly be given more touches.

Next, let’s determine who would be interested in Pau.  Perhaps the Grizzlies could pair him up with his brother in a deal that could involve Z-Bo and Rudy Gay (not both going to the Lakers, but part of a potential 4 way deal where Z-Bo goes to Brooklyn, Kris Humphries and Rudy Gay go to LA, a future Nets first, Pau Gasol and MWP go to Memphis).  How about the Atlanta Hawks in a deal to snag Josh Smith and add some younger legs to run the floor with Nash?  Heck, even the Celtics could be interested and deal Kevin Garnett and Jeff Green for Pau Gasol and Peace coming to Boston.  Sound crazy?…because it is.

In short, the call here is that LA will both fire Brown and deal Gasol by the deadline with their main targets being youth either at Power Forward seeking Josh Smith or at Small Forward seeking Rudy Gay. 

Stay tuned.

Brooklyn will miss the playoffs and their minds

 

Honestly I didn’t think this was going to happen with D-Will being retained and Crash healthy.  It seems kind of inevitable now though.  The Nets seem to be operating similar to the Knicks when Thomas was at the helm, looking more at players who have a track record of scoring over any other significant statistic (it’s why I mentioned them in the Z-Bo move, how Isiah  would that trade be?).  They have also shelled over 25 million dollars a season to Humphries and Lopez and are already regretting that decision.  Speaking of bad contracts Joe Johnson was another cluster eff word move that got the Nets in further luxury tax land. 

The owner obviously has the money to pay for any excessive tax, but that doesn’t mean early firings for the coach, GM and perhaps a bevy of moves to right the ship.  Looking at the lofty claims the owner has made about when he expects the team to be a title contender, this thing has early millennium Knicks written all over it.

Carmelo Anthony finishes second in MVP voting

 

I can’t believe I just typed that. 

I am as shocked as you are. 

Look, the Knicks have made a series of intelligent moves in the off-season, behaving almost as polar opposites of their cross city rivals.  The success of the team will likely be due to several other key factors not named Carmelo. 

Tyson Chandler being an excellent off the ball defender and having a high rebounding rate, which he typically does (assuming he’s healthy). Ronnie Brewer emerging as the most underrated pick up of the off-season with Felton not being far behind as both have given the team a solid backcourt defensive tandem with high assist rates.  Coach Mike Woodson finding a way to have Amare co-exist with the ball dominant Melo in the half court, perhaps regulating him more to play with the second unit. 

So, I’m not giving that much credit to Melo here.  I just know how MVP voting will work.  The voters don’t look at stats like adjusted plus minus, rebounding or assist rates, or points per possession...you know the ones that lead to wins.  They look at good teams and who leads them in scoring. 

Simply put, the Knicks have a legit chance of finishing the regular season with a 2 seed in the East and with OKC perhaps falling back with the loss of Harden in the West that may be enough for Anthony to steal some MVP votes away from Durant. 

Still, even after that excuse it’s still crazy to believe that can actually happen. 

Just crazy enough to make this prediction…. I still can’t believe I typed this last paragraph.