The Pau Pickle

Pau Gasol Trades That Should’ve Happened Yesterday, But Need to Happen Tomorrow.

There are a slew of surprise teams in the first month and a half of the season.  

We’ve got the Eastern Conference best New York Knicks coming off some quality blow out wins including the Lakers at home (more on them later) and shellacking the Heat in Miami without Melo.  How about the Golden State Warriors being in playoff positioning this deep in the season?  Ellis left and Bogut has yet to appear much and when he does play meaningful minutes.  The Warriors have been resilient throughout and have many people asking “Wait their among the top teams in the West?” when checking the daily standings.  Props to Memphis and Atlanta for disappointing fans a season ago, to being one of the top teams in their respective conferences and giving some great hope back in the deep south.  Then there are teams that we’re surprised are this competitive without a marquee talent in the lineup, like the Bobcats, Magic, Timberwolves and Mavericks.

Then of course there are some serious disappointments.   Now for the sake of time we won’t go into the different levels of which teams are more disappointing than others.  Sure the Sixers, Pacers and Nuggets probably thought they’d be one of the better teams in their respective conferences, but due to major injuries (Bynum and Granger) or getting acquainted (Welcome to Denver Iggy) their respective records seem about right at this point of time.

When we talk serious disappointments two teams come to mind: Los Angeles Lakers (probably clearly number one given their buzz) and the Toronto Raptors.

Let’s focus with the Lakers since they clearly have more buzz and that will allow people to hopefully place a freakin comment at the bottom of the post.

First let’s start with what we already know.  We know there were major changes to the roster (Nash, Howard) and now major injuries (Gasol, Nash).  We can’t simply dismiss these injuries though or blame their recent struggles on it.  First, when you sign a 39 year old point guard, you have to expect endurance and health to be some concerns there.  The Lakers failed to address a large need in the off-season, backup point guard, to fill in the gap when the inevitable time off for Nash was going to occur.

Now to Pau Gasol. 

Now as you many of you may or may not now, I’m a huge Pau Gasol fan.  He consistently has a high TS% season in-season out, always among the top 5 power forwards with a usage rate (% of possessions that player occupies when on the floor) of at least 20% and 20 MPG.  Also he’s an above average rebounder (Total Rebounding Rate - % of rebounds a player collects when on the floor, average for a 4 is 18%, he’s usually between 18 – 20%) and perhaps most importantly, a willing passer with an assist rate (% of possessions that end in an assist) ranking among the top 5 with the aforementioned usage and MPG criteria.  Bottom line, if we were picking teams there are fewer Power Forwards you’d rather play with than Pau Gasol.

With most teams a Pau Gasol injury would be a worthy excuse to being sub .500, but the Lakers are that talented.  Kobe and Howard alone should be enough to have LA in top 4 seeding contention out West.

LA did their roster and Gasol a disadvantage.  They brought in an up tempo coach who really doesn’t play well into Gasol’s strengths (low post/half court) and considering D’Antoni isn’t going anywhere soon, are better off trading him.  The Lakers need help at backup point, more speed up front and more shooting all-around.   The Lakers also have a huge issue with depth so a 1 for 2 deal is probably what the aim should be in a trade Pau Gasol endeavor. 

First, who should be interested?  

Really, everybody except teams that are real deep at the 4/5 like the Grizzlies, or those that are in pure rebuilding mode like a slew of bottom cellars (too many to list).

Second, who has a package that gives the Lakers at least three of the four items we mentioned they need (speed up front, backup point guard, shooting and depth) and could do a 2 for 1 move themselves.  Honing in further, what teams see an opportunity by landing Gasol and feel he may be the missing piece of a deep playoff run?

Okay here’s who I got, Golden State, Boston, Toronto, New York, Minnesota, Brooklyn, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia.

Now let’s quickly sketch out what a likely trade would look like with these teams maybe a quick snippet why for each and then determine the one that makes most sense for all teams.

Golden State: David Lee and Jarret Jack for Pau Gasol and Chris Duhon

Why for LA?  Lee knows Mike’s system and flourished in it a few seasons ago (hence why he has his current contract) and Jack provides much needed support behind Nash and encompasses many of the qualities (strong pick and roll play) that are successful in a Mike D’Antoni offense.

Why for GSW? When are the Warriors not seemingly desperate to make the playoffs?  They have had a strong start this season, but unless they want to be a one and done, may want to think about consolidating pieces for the versatile Gasol.  Pau gives the Warriors a much needed post presence with Bogut out and could propel Golden State for a deep playoff run.

Boston: Jeff Green, Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee for Pau Gasol

Why for LA?  Hello depth!  The Lakers need some quality bodies really everywhere and these 3 can play 30+ MPG when someone gets hurt and/or play multiple positions in LA.

Why for Boston?  With Sullinger playing well and Bradley slated to come back soon there isn’t much of a need for Bass or Lee on the roster.  Losing Green may hurt, but if it means giving an already strong half court team an added talent that may help them dethrone Miami, they likely jump.

Toronto: Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon for Pau Gasol

Why for LA? Pretty much exactly what they need in a trade: strong shooting and a strong backup point who can excel in a pick and roll offense.

Why for Toronto?  The Raptors don’t own their pick and need to go for a playoff run to avoid several front office job losses.  Toronto in general is simply missing intelligent basketball players who can help the youth play smarter on the court.  Pau is perhaps one of the wisest players in the league and should instill a much needed culture change up north.

New York: Amare Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert for Pau Gasol

Why for LA? Like with Lee, STAT knows Mike’s system and dominated in it with two situations (Phoenix of course and the Knicks prior to Melo coming aboard).  Also, who wouldn’t want to witness the Mike-STAT-Nash reunion: the twilight years.  Finally, Iman is the man.  Shumpert can play both guard slots and relieves some major duties that Kobe needs to fulfill on the defensive end.

Why for NY? The Knicks are on the cusp and seem so-close to contention.  The Heat still have superior overall talent and would be a tough matchup for New York if they ever met up in a potential Eastern Conference Finals showdown.  Adding Gasol would take advantage of Miami’s biggest weakness, low post defense, and could make the Knicks…gasp…favorites to win the title in 2012, why wait any longer?

Minnesota: Nikola Pekovic, JJ Barea and Derrick Williams for Pau Gasol

Why for LA?  It comes back to depth.  Barea is another great fit for a D’Antoni system and Pekovic gives much needed support at the backup 4/5 while Williams could flourish in an up tempo system and break out from Adelman’s dog house.

Why for Minny?  Rick Adelman loves passing big men (see Vlade Divac) and adding Gasol could transform the Wolves into this decade’s Sacramento Kings (honestly who wouldn’t want to see that).  Such a move could propel the Wolves higher up in the conference and if nothing else give further exposure to the Timberwolves.  Pekovic is also a pending free agent and is expecting a large pay day if he stays with the Wolves.  Is he worth 70 million?  If the Wolves don’t think so, dealing him now and losing the risk of overpaying him is a sound option.

Brooklyn: Kris Humphries, Marshon Brooks and CJ Watson for Pau Gasol and Chris Duhon

Why for LA? The Lakers get some nice talent in all areas of weakness on the roster.  You want hustle 4s who can run and rebound, yep we got that.  A wing who can spell Kobe a bit and add much needed talent to the 2^nd unit, sure.  A quality backup point who play with Mike’s system (sort of) and maybe versatile enough to play multiple guard slots, why not.

Why for BK? Is there an NBA team more currently desperate to make a playoff run than the Nets? With Lopez in and out of the lineup, the Nets need another low post talent who can also facilitate the offense and relieve some pressure on D-Will.  Pau does that and, like the case with the Knicks, may then have the added talent necessary to take a stab at beating the Heat.

Atlanta: Josh Smith and Devin Harris FOR Pau Gasol and Chris Duhon

Why for LA? Smith may be the best 4 for a D’Antoni offense and Harris has another shot at resurgence in a D’Antoni offense.

Why for ATL? Gasol may allow Horford to shift to the 4 and as mentioned with every other Eastern team on the list, perhaps give the Hawks some more bite to make a deep run in the playoffs and become the Grizzlies of the East.

Milwaukee: Drew Gooden, Ekpe Udoh, Mike Dunleavy and Beno Udrih for Pau Gasol and Jordan Hill

Why for LA? Depth, shooting, hey a new one: cap space.

Why for Milwaukee: How bad do they want to make the playoffs? Getting Gasol does that, but are they willing to unload cap and decent prospects to do so? 

Philadelphia: Thad Young, Jason Richardson and Dorell Wright for Pau Gasol, Jodie Meeks and Devin Ebanks

Why for LA? Shooting, speed at the 4, need I say more?

Why for Philly? Reuniting Gasol and Bynum with the rest of Philly’s young core still means promise down the road and dominance more immediately.

So what’s your favorite Gasol trade?  Comment below.  My take?  I like them all and hear all cases.  The one that makes the most sense?  Probably Golden State, I mean they were mentioned first on the list for a reason.

Be a leader, comment below…not on Facebook.

Happy Chanukah!

The All Thanksgiving Duo

Two Players To Be Thankful For on This Thanksgiving Day

If you want to find the best players in the NBA go search for another list.  Here we will discuss the top two players fans, teams, or management should really be most thankful for due to one reason or another.

Paul Pierce

In most cases a player with Pierce's talents either would have demanded a trade mid-way through the last decade when Celtics Basketball took a back seat to the D2 frozen four.  Either that or a team he was on would have explored a trade to completely revamp or rebuild their situation.  Let's examine similar scenarios.

Tracy McGrady was a high scoring, do-it-all offensive wing with Orlando during this same time frame.  Magic fans and management were fed up; however, due to the consecutive strings of first round playoff exits.  This was really not due to McGrady at all as anyone who examines his advanced stats don't speak of his scoring prowess, which is evident when you just look at the box scores, but of his impressive assist rate which was at least 23% (i.e at least 23% of possessions that went through him led to assists) every year since the new millennium.

Yet as we anyone who follows sports knows, the first person to really get a hefty amount of criticism when things don't go as planned for a franchise is the star player.  As a result McGrady was eventually traded to Houston.

How about we go slightly old school...late 80s-early 90s style. 

Charles Barkley was left as the leader in Philadelphia after iconic years from Moshe Malone and Dr J.  Like McGrady though, fans and management were fed up with the early playoff exits and dealt him for a slew of role players which included sharp shooting Jeff Hornacek.

The similar cases though were the results of both Philly and Orlando after they dealt their current franchise players.  The Magic landed a young, but quickly declining Cuttino Mobley and Steve Francis who immediately turned the Magic from playoff hopefuls to Ping Pong promises (eh I don't like the alliteration much either...too bad, not editing).  The Sixers endured a decade of misery while the Suns, Barkley's new team, won the West his first season and enjoyed a slew of 50+ win seasons in the 90s.

The Celtics of course stayed course which is typically riskier. 

Teams are typically afraid to deal their youth at a chance of contention (see Eric Bledsoe with the Clippers...shout out to previous post), but at times are better off doing so since the chances of that young stud really amounting to much is less likely than they realize.  This was the case as far as a few years ago with perceived studs such as Roddy Beabouis of Dallas, Anthony Randolph when on Golden State, Jeff Teague of the Hawks, Omri Casspi earlier when on Sacramento, or Nicolas Batum on Portland.

Teams just need to view their players like stocks.  They need to understand when their market values (i.e. what teams perceive their worth is) are far higher than their book values (what their actual worth is) and cash in on perception.  The Celtics were smart with Pierce.

Danny Ainge did try dealing Paul back in 2005 to Portland for Nick Van Axel's expiring contract and the third pick of the draft which he wanted to use on Chris Paul.  When that deal fell apart, he didn't try dealing Pierce for less than his book value and instead kept him. 

Pierce deserves much of the credit here dodging trade rumors, sticking with a mediocre rosters, and finally reaping the rewards of a major trade to net hall of famers and start a new dynasty in Boston. 

Celtic fans and management need to be thankful for being patient with Paul, not dealing him for less than his worth, and being able to retain this truly underrated ageless wonder.

Zach Randolph

This may sound like a strange player to be on the list. 

Who should be thankful for a black hole, offensive only oriented player? 

Randolph has really had many of these similar labels throughout his career and they are somewhat warranted.  Call him the anti-McGrady, Zach has only had one season in his career (last year in fact) where is assist rate was over 11%.

Unlike some players though, you have to know what you're getting with Zach.  If you need someone to score he's your guy.  If other players need the ball to be successful, look elsewhere. 

As a result Zach was passed through teams that didn't specifically need his skill set and his play and his market value suffered as a result.

First he was in Portland and jockeying with then franchise man, Rasheed Wallace, for minutes touches and technicals.  Portland forced a rebuild and of course shipped him immediately.  Then he came to perhaps a worse situation than the Jail Blazers to the Isiah Thomas Knick era.

The Knicks already had a then young Eddy Curry who needed possessions in the post and of course a slew of chuckers that included Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford and Quentin Richardson.  There was really no room for Randolph with New York's offensive dominated lineup.  Eventually the Knicks realized this and were thankful for unloading Randolph to the Clippers for expiring contracts for the next season. 

Randolph of course didn't fair much better in LA as he was dealt again for pure contract space to Memphis.  What a toll, for a selfish albeit talented player.  Dealt three times in a span of a few years for what really is utter crap.  A Mobley expiring, a Francis contract, and a deal involving Quentin Richardson.  This isn't Ala Albdanley...it's Zach Randolph.

Finally he came to Memphis.

Remember Memphis acquired Randolph more for his contract then his actual talents.  You see Randolph had a unique escalated salary contract which allowed a team to pay a percentage of his contract now and the rest via a loan later.  Because of this, Memphis was able to stay under the minimum salary allowable for a roster and thrifty owner Michael Heisley who was trying to sell the team was thrilled.

Little did Memphis realize they actually netted an All Star for about 5 cents on the dollar. 

Randolph took his aggression from all of those years of under appreciation, quick trades, and fans dogging on him on the rest of the Western Conference.  Zach certainly stuck with it amidst nearly a decade of turmoil and has resurrected his career.  If there was a most improved player over a decade span he certainly earns it. 

Kudos Mr. Randolph...Mr. Pierce as well.  Gobble Squared.

Putting the Crazy LA LA in Los Angeles

What’s been happening in LA?  A Crazy Call You Have to Read to Believe

The Lakers got into panic mode really quickly this season.  What’s even more comical about their recent sense of urgency is that no one is surprised.  Mike Brown let Kobe control the team and had some very questionable coaching decisions in recent memory.  Two major items standout: one micro, one macro.

Micro blunder

Let’s start in the Western Conference finals last season with the Lakers down two to the Oklahoma City Thunder and 7 seconds left on the clock.  The Lakers called time out and coach Brown designed a play that was supposed to get Kobe a clean look and potentially send the series back to LA with the Lakers in control.

Now many of you remember what happened next.  Peace couldn't find a cutting Bryant sprinting away from the ball towards the far corner and instead found an open Steve Blake who missed the three, game over, OKC controls series.

You shouldn't mind that look by Blake.  He’s an efficient spacing point guard who has hit that three on many occasions.  What I do mind is the play itself.  Brown had designed a play where the intended recipient needed to cut away from the ball requiring Peace to turn into Aaron Rodgers in order to make the appropriate pass across the court to find him. 

That play was dissected to death by the media afterwards and opened up many glaring questions around Brown’s late game coaching, particularly due to how hard he defended it afterwards.

Macro blunder

We need to discuss this Princeton offense thing for a moment.  The team just inherited two hall of famers and had arguably the most talented starting lineup in the NBA, certainly the Western Conference.  That also means you have two players who need to learn your system and get acclimated so their talents can take care of the rest. 

Instead of keeping last season’s offensive system which would require only Nash and Howard to learn, Brown opted for a new offense which would require the entire team to learn from scratch.  If you have a lot of changes in your lineup, have the most talented team in the conference, why would you drastically change your offensive set?

Enter D’Antoni

FYI, I don’t hate this hiring. 

Everyone is talking about Phil Jackson and that LA needed to ensure they signed him with such a talented team.  Personally, I’m not buying Mitch Kupchack’s statement that the team was wary of their players fitting well in the triangle.  

I do feel Phil wanted to be GM/Coach of the team and wanted full power or at the very least Mitch felt threatened that this would inevitably occur.  Either way, I likely would have done the same move if I were Mitch. 

Would you hire someone who has already mentioned his goal is to literally take your job in the near future?  Someone who is honored constantly by the media, fans and most importantly your ownership and franchise player? 

Also, don’t sniff at Mike being an assistant with team USA and coaching Kobe during the last several Olympics helping either. 

Finally, there’s obviously the whole Nash familiarity and the ability to run the floor with Dwight Howard at the 5. 

Guess what though.  The Lakers are not what’s interesting that’s happening in LA LA Land. 

Great, the Lakers panicked and hired a new coach.  Good for them.  They still won’t win the West.  Neither will OKC due to Harden leaving and now an over dependency on Westbrook in particular.

You know who will?  That other LA team.  That’s right Johnny, let’s go Clippers!

Why the Clippers are legitimate contenders

Contending teams require, for the most part, the following attributes (yes I like lists).
High usage rate player who combines that with high True Shooting percentage and decent assist rate.  Meet Chris Paul.

High rebounding rate and proper interior defense including good help D – D’Andre Jordan is one of the more polished shot blockers in the league and Blake has shown major progress in this area.

      Quality off ball role players with high true shooting percentages – This may seem like a random little addition for contenders, but think about every championship winner.  They’ve all had role players who were very efficient off the ball shooters (Bulls-Paxson/Armstrong/Kerr, Spurs-Horry/Kerr/Bonner, Lakers-Shaw/Fox/George, Celtics-House/Posey). The Clippers are very strong in this area with Matt Barnes, Chauncey Billups (when healthy), and Caron Butler.

      Complimentary Talent – Blake Griffin is ready to bolt as a number two weapon here and as he and CP3 play more together, his overall game should surely grow as a result.

You know what else the Clippers have?  One of the most underrated role players in the last decade, Matt Barnes.  Barnes has consistently finished in the top 10 unadjusted on-off net rating among wings over the past 5 seasons.  The stat measures the net difference per 100 possessions of a certain player on the court vs. off the court.  Over is career Matt’s units were a net 5 points better when he was on the floor.

Depth is a key factor in the regular season, but strong 6-8 man rotations are needed in the playoffs.  Clippers have both a strong deep rotation to go through 82 games, but also a condensed version that may be stronger than any out West.

Clipper fans need not get too excited though, sorry Clipper Darryl

LA may have one of the worst head coaches in the game in Vinny Del Negro.  Vinny has long been criticized as a poor coach among some of his peers and according to several inside sources of yours truly.

Also, being as close as they are to contention, LA should really cash in their biggest trade chip and net a nice 3^rd banana that could put them over the top. 

Eric Bledsoe is that asset and has shown enough signs that may lead a team to believe he could be their future starting point guard.  The Clippers already have Jamal Crawford who could play point guard some and really only need a body for 10-15 minutes a night behind CP3.  A Chris Duhon, Ish Smith, or even Earl Boykins who is a free agent would do just fine.

Now the fun part. 

Let’s concoct some trade ideas involving Bledsoe, likely Caron Butler since he has a contract that should fit a player in such a role, and everyone’s favorite cherry an extra first round pick.

What can that package net? How about Danny Granger

The Pacers have performed well over the years without Granger in their lineup and are in desperate need of a future point guard.  Look, I don’t love Granger, but he would certainly fit as that off the ball wing that can help Blake and Chris on the offensive end more and keep defenses from trapping on the two All Stars.

The bigger question is whether the Clippers are gutsy enough to make such a move.  They already showed their willingness to push the chips in the pot with the Chris Paul trade, now will they make one final move to help secure their title hopes? 

If they don’t they risk not only losing the Western conference, but perhaps Chris Paul himself to free agency.

LA sure is nuts!  There’s a reason they call it LA LA land…cue cheesy womp womp.   

Early Tells, Early Predictions

Okay, so I missed the boat for NBA season predictions since, well, the season already started.  I’d rather not throw out a fairly obvious slew of predictions which would include the Heat winning the title and LeBron landing MVP.  Maybe less obvious predictions would be Damian Lillard over Anthony Davis for ROY, Greg Monroe for MIP, and Rick Adelman for COY.

Here are some perhaps more random, but less obvious predictions I will make based on both the early season results, but also trends coming into the season.

Cleveland, Get Excited

We can talk about how it has been a rough few years for Cleveland Cavaliers fans.  Yes, it starts with LeBron leaving, but also continues with the aftermath.  First there was owner Dan Gilbert making the most absurd claim perhaps of all time that the Cavaliers would be champions before the Heat.  I wonder what the Vegas odds would have been that a team with no sign at the time of a franchise player led by Daniel Gibson and Baron Davis’ contract would be closer to winning a title than another in a much more marketable location with three future hall of famers in their prime.  Then you have to point out the JJ Hickson deal.  It was a relatively small blip on the Cavs series of moves over the past few years, as neither player in the move (my man Omri being the piece coming to Cleveland) made any real impact for their respective team.  What is more interesting though is that roughly over a year prior to that trade, Cleveland was being offered Amare Stoudemire for an expiring contract and JJ Hickson.  Cleveland was so high on Hickson that they nixed a deal to net Amare, who may have altered their title chances in James’ last season and instead just dealt the expiring for Antawn Jamison.  Let’s move on to present day.

Cleveland, your savior was always with you and it’s not who you may think 

Kyrie Irving is an incredible young talent who really does everything you want out of a future franchise stud. 

1.       High usage rate combined with high true shooting percentage – check

2.       High usage rate combined with solid assist rate – are you kidding?  Check that sucker

3.       Solid on ball and off ball defense – check, see his synergy stats for more details

4.       Young as hell – he’s not old, check

5.       Solid contract and likeliness of staying long term – likely a check here, but there are no guarantees. 

6.       A great first name the crowd can randomly chant if he’s on fire – two syllables works well….Ky-reee! Ky-reee!  Check Check (actually that chant is for random Czech triple backup center Klabo Foreign).

Guess what though, he’s not the savior.  Spoiler alert, it’s Anderson Varejao.

Varejao, perhaps one of the most underrated centers in the game, is one of the few bigs in the league to consistently have a rebounding rate over 16% (average for a 4/5 is 13%, and yes that 3% difference is bigger than his hair), and a defensive rating above -3.5 each season (indicating the team allows 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor).  It’s no coincidence that Cleveland was flirting heavily with .500 last season until he got hurt.

Cleveland also made a gutsy surprise pick on draft day and selected the overweight, but still efficient Dion Waiters with their 4^th pick.  It’s usually not a great sign when a young rookie has weight issues, especially at the wing, but you can’t deny Dion’s overall game which should make him a consistent top 5 round pick in fantasy basketball roto leagues over the next 10 years.

After those three the Cavs still have solid young bigs of Tyler Zeller and Tristian Thompson not to mention a boat load of cap space in the off-season.   So the final prediction here isn’t that the Cavs will be good, it’s that they are already good. 

Prediction: Cavs will make the playoffs and will beat the Heat in one game of their first round series…and it’s going to be legendary.

Lakers will make a desperation trade at the deadline

 

I don’t think this is going so far out on a limb, but even if things get better for the Lakers, as long as they’re not first in that conference I think they’ll slam that panic button.  First off, originally the prediction was going to be that Mike Brown would be fired by February.  Then I thought about it and felt even if he were fired by February I still think the Lakers will make a big trade. 

So who to trade?  There are several notions to throw out here.  First off, we’ll assume Steve Nash is healthy at this point in time.  The deal could still involve netting a point guard, but that route doesn’t seem as likely with another team not willing to take on Nash and really giving the Lakers something of value they can throw at the 1.  The name to look at yet again has to be Pau Gasol.   Gasol has been in trade rumors for a number of years and is perhaps not only the most underrated player on his team, but one of the more underrated big men in the league.  He would be far more effective on a team with a coach and franchise player that understood how dominant he can truly be given more touches.

Next, let’s determine who would be interested in Pau.  Perhaps the Grizzlies could pair him up with his brother in a deal that could involve Z-Bo and Rudy Gay (not both going to the Lakers, but part of a potential 4 way deal where Z-Bo goes to Brooklyn, Kris Humphries and Rudy Gay go to LA, a future Nets first, Pau Gasol and MWP go to Memphis).  How about the Atlanta Hawks in a deal to snag Josh Smith and add some younger legs to run the floor with Nash?  Heck, even the Celtics could be interested and deal Kevin Garnett and Jeff Green for Pau Gasol and Peace coming to Boston.  Sound crazy?…because it is.

In short, the call here is that LA will both fire Brown and deal Gasol by the deadline with their main targets being youth either at Power Forward seeking Josh Smith or at Small Forward seeking Rudy Gay. 

Stay tuned.

Brooklyn will miss the playoffs and their minds

 

Honestly I didn’t think this was going to happen with D-Will being retained and Crash healthy.  It seems kind of inevitable now though.  The Nets seem to be operating similar to the Knicks when Thomas was at the helm, looking more at players who have a track record of scoring over any other significant statistic (it’s why I mentioned them in the Z-Bo move, how Isiah  would that trade be?).  They have also shelled over 25 million dollars a season to Humphries and Lopez and are already regretting that decision.  Speaking of bad contracts Joe Johnson was another cluster eff word move that got the Nets in further luxury tax land. 

The owner obviously has the money to pay for any excessive tax, but that doesn’t mean early firings for the coach, GM and perhaps a bevy of moves to right the ship.  Looking at the lofty claims the owner has made about when he expects the team to be a title contender, this thing has early millennium Knicks written all over it.

Carmelo Anthony finishes second in MVP voting

 

I can’t believe I just typed that. 

I am as shocked as you are. 

Look, the Knicks have made a series of intelligent moves in the off-season, behaving almost as polar opposites of their cross city rivals.  The success of the team will likely be due to several other key factors not named Carmelo. 

Tyson Chandler being an excellent off the ball defender and having a high rebounding rate, which he typically does (assuming he’s healthy). Ronnie Brewer emerging as the most underrated pick up of the off-season with Felton not being far behind as both have given the team a solid backcourt defensive tandem with high assist rates.  Coach Mike Woodson finding a way to have Amare co-exist with the ball dominant Melo in the half court, perhaps regulating him more to play with the second unit. 

So, I’m not giving that much credit to Melo here.  I just know how MVP voting will work.  The voters don’t look at stats like adjusted plus minus, rebounding or assist rates, or points per possession...you know the ones that lead to wins.  They look at good teams and who leads them in scoring. 

Simply put, the Knicks have a legit chance of finishing the regular season with a 2 seed in the East and with OKC perhaps falling back with the loss of Harden in the West that may be enough for Anthony to steal some MVP votes away from Durant. 

Still, even after that excuse it’s still crazy to believe that can actually happen. 

Just crazy enough to make this prediction…. I still can’t believe I typed this last paragraph.

Houston: We Have A Stud - Analyzing the Harden to Rockets Trade

James Harden is Better Than You Think

Let's re-evaluate the biggest trade thus far this off-season.  Harden to Houston?  No, let's discuss Dwight Howard's move to the Lakers.

Howard deal in a semi large nut shell

Dwight Howard will likely finish his career as one of the top ten greatest centers ever.  Heck, maybe ten is too high.  Who's better than him in NBA history, or rather, if the following centers were in their prime who would you take and in what order (honestly, I'd like to know, post your order in the comments section...do it...c'mon)?

Shaquille O'neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Bob Pettit, Bob Lanier, Nate Thurmond, Wes Unseld, Alonzo Mourning, Moses Malone, Bill Walton, Dwight Howard

Regardless, this league is empty of centers.  Let's do the same ranking game with current 5s in the league (post yours in the comments section).

Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, Nene, JaVale McGee, Al Horford (more of a 4), Anderson Varejao, Serge Ibaka, Joakim Noah, Andrew Bynum, Greg Monroe, Roy Hibbert, Omer Asik, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol.

FYI the above is in random order.  Want better proof than just names?  How about the max or near max deals shelled out in the past two summers to Roy Hibbert, Andrew Bynum, Brook Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol and the perceived nutty amount of money shelled out to Omer Asik (Another FYI, I like the Asik deal).

Why is this important?  It shows how significant Dwight Howard really is.  Teams are willing to spend boat loads of money on half-way decent centers, none of whom currently even sniff the jock strap of Mr. Howard.

Right I know....Howard is great.  So What?

Well, now let's circle back to the original point, the Howard to Orlando deal. 

Orlando dealt a future hall of famer who also plays the most sought after position in the league, who they knew they could not keep, for guard Arron Afflalo and forward Al Harrington from Denver and forward Moe Harkless and center Nikola Vucevic from Philadelphia and forward Josh McRoberts and guard Christian Eyenga from the Lakers.  Sure they dealt the bad contracts of Chris Duhon and Jason Richardson (FYI, 3rd FYI of the post, J-Rich's deal isn't a bad one.  More than likely last seasons's low 3 FG% of 36.8% was flukey considering it was the lowest since his rookie year), but also netted the bad contracts of Al Harrington and really Arron Afflalo who is paid way too much for an efficient, but low usage rate wing.

Now, OKC is kind of in a similar situation with Harden that Orlando was with Howard.  There was no Dwightmare or in James' case, Hardened View, but the notion was the same.  Up-coming free agent that will get max deal can't stay with current team.  Harden's reasons seemed financial, Dwight's a bit douchier, more fame perhaps?  Either way both teams needed to deal their respective talents.

The returns of the trades

So we saw what Orlando got in that deal.  Odds are unless you follow the NBA religiously, you haven't heard of every player in that trade.  If you're a casual fan, have you even heard of the main pieces in the deal? 

Quick, 5 seconds, what teams have Arron Afflalo played for?  Did you know that without Google-ing it?  Well, either way, he was the main part of that Howard trade.

OKC received Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and a slew of draft picks in exchange for Harden.  That's a much better return than what Orlando received for Dwight.

Sounds like a clear rip-off for Houston then, right? 

Not so fast.

It's a bit different because Harden's issue was financial.  He wanted more money.  He wanted a MAX deal.  He'll get one with Houston.  So the Rockets, unlike the Lakers, know the player they received via trade will likely stay there long term.

 

Another factor, the 2-guard slot is perhaps just as scarce as the center slot in the league

Remember that center list from earlier? 

Let's see the top shooting guards in the league today:

Kobe Bryant, Iggy, Joe Johnson, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Martin, James Harden, Paul George, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Manu Ginobili and I am struggling to find more names. 

Pretty weak, especially when we compare it to other times in NBA history.  This is true with centers as well.

Let's focus a bit more on the stud that is James Harden.

 

Three factors are crucial in a franchise player. 

I won't go into all of the factors that go into a franchise player, but three main ones you want initially are young age, ability to occupy a decent portion of possessions, and either have a high true shooting percentage (TS%) or high assist rate (AR), both...nuch besser.

Harden is 23 years old - check

Harden occupied over 20% of OKC's possessions last year, bear in mind that's with Westbrook and Durant, two extremely high usage rate possessors on the roster. - check

Harden had a TS% of 66% last season (average is 52.7%) and AR of 24.7 (average is 19.2) - check on both.

To put that full list of very critical stats in perspective, no player in the league last season...not even LeBron James, combined a usage rate of over 20%, with a TS% of over 61% and an AR of over 24%.  Oh, did I mention he's only 23.

Fact, James Harden inhibits skills that very few wings in this league have and is only now starting to enter his prime. 

Did Houston make a good trade here?  Aw hell yeah!

Not to trash OKC here, but they got a great deal as well considering their situation.  They knew they could not afford Harden and were able to net quality replacements in Kevin Martin and a young Jeremy Lamb in this trade.  Hell, they got several picks too!  Not shabby.

Don't knock Houston or Harden here though.  GM Daryl Morey made a slew of heavily criticized, but underrated moves this off-season in signing Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin (I'm not going to defend that in this post, but maybe another one. Quick snippet version, he'll sell out crowds and though his sample size was small last year, few players ever had that advanced stat line over a 26 game period) and now with the Harden deal.

James was masked a bit, being the 3rd banana in OKC's system and regulated to 6th man.  He'll be a focal point for defenses in Houston.  This could effect him a bit, sure, but still worth a nice calculated risk for Houston.

Final prediction: James Harden is that good, he's only 23 and in his first year he will lead the Rockets to the playoffs. 

One mistake OKC may have made.  Did they explore all options to really clear enough cap space to sign Harden to a max deal or did they simply not think he was worth such a large contract? 

I would have explored Perkins or even Ibaka deals, to try and shed some salary and get cap back some talent in the process (how about Perkins for Pachulia, similar but worse talent, and nice salary shed...I think Atlanta does that too!).

Either way he's gone now, and perhaps so are OKC's title hopes.  Now there's new hope in Houston and a young star to help lead the way.  Can Harden be a number one guy?  The advanced stats seem to say so and the system in Houston should cater to his skill set well.

Well done, Houston, well done.    

You Just Got Forked - Basketball Purgatory

Basketball Purgatory: The NBA’s Version of No Man’s Land

Every season you have a small set of teams that are at the bottom and likely lottery bound and an even smaller amount that have a true chance at a championship.  In actuality, the 30 teams in the league can be classified in even more ways.
 

The New York Yankees

First off, you have your teams who believe they are title contenders.  This list consists not only of the legit title contenders (i.e. teams that GMs have voted to win the title, see previous post), but also of teams who have maxed out their cap space and are in title or bust mode.  If they don’t win the title the fans of those teams will be disappointed along with players and front office personnel alike.  This is also known as the Yankees every year. This list of course includes the Heat, Lakers and Thunder, but also the Celtics and Spurs.

Strategic Hopefuls

Now let’s check out the opposite side of the spectrum.  Yes, these may be lottery bound teams but they have a plan in place for the future.  These teams either have a lot of cap flexibility, hefty minute allocation towards their youth, or perhaps both.  A good name here are the Strategic Hopefuls due to a likely organized strategic way of trying to get themselves eventually back (or perhaps for the first time) to contention.  This list includes the Bobcats, Cavs, Magic, Kings, Pistons, Rockets, Hornets, Blazers and Suns (albeit unintentionally).

Some of you may say that it seems like you are either rebuilding or contending, well we’re not done with the groups yet.

Up and Comers

I know, real cliche title.  These teams have a solid youth core, perhaps some veterans, and seem poised to be title contenders…next year, or maybe the year after.  Still, kudos to their front office as they are likely going to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs and have a core that should be in the mix for the championship circa 2015.  Our potential ’15 title contenders are the Sixers, Pacers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Hawks and Jazz.

An Injury Away

Another real simple title here.  The following teams may have little cap flexibility, but they do have star power, pure talent and could flirt with a deep run in the playoffs.  Heck, if someone from a top team (Heat, Lakers, Thunder) get hurt they have a chance to catapult up to that Yankees list.  These teams are essentially an injury away, albeit from one of their competitors, of being a threat in the post season.  The teams that may look to hire a mobster to hurt either LeBron or Durant are the Knicks, Bulls (assuming Rose is healthy) and Clippers.

NBA Purgatory

Oh you didn't see your favorite team on any of the above list…uh oh.   

The in-betweeners, the stuck in the middlers, or how about the what the hell are you freakin doingers.  Whatever you want to call them, these teams are essentially in the worst situation of any group.  Too little cap flexibility or enough trade assets to make serious moves to become a contender and essentially too good to build through the draft or due to cap restraints, through free agency.  These are essentially fork in the road teams, except they are the fork.  Your forkers are the Wizards, Bucks, Mavericks, Warriors, Nets, and Raptors.

What went wrong?

These teams made some classic humanistic errors.  You can call them over-eager.  They were young at one point, had a surprise season and sniffed the playoffs.  Then their GMs went truly nutty and just spent their cap space too soon and showed tremendous impatience.

 

You can simply call them delusional.  They think they are more talented than they are, have set high standards and will get disappointed quickly as they already have tried spending their way to contention. The latter thinking is typically where you see firings occur.

Let’s hone in on each team and see what went wrong.

Golden State Warriors – Were they ever right?

The Warriors had only made the playoffs once since 1994.  More than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs in a season and the Warriors only made it one time in an 18 year span.  Here’s what likely went wrong.  In 1995, the Warriors had the first pick of the draft and selected Joe Smith, solid vet, but certainly not a star. Later in the 2000s they had a slew of top 10 picks, including several in the top 10, but Jason Richardson, Mike Dunleavy JR and Troy Murphy just became overpaid rotational talent.  Golden State essentially compounded their errors.  Not only did were they consistently not netting studs in the draft, but when their drafted players' contracts were up, they were paying them like franchise saviors.  Also, Golden State didn't strike out in the draft which is actually not a great thing.  Sounds strange right?  Well, the Warriors kept netting good, not great talent which would lead to a good, not great team.  Fast-forward to today the Warriors have a nice young core in place in Curry and Thompson but have over spent on injury prone or non star like vets in Bogut and Lee and thus lack the flexibility needed to really take the team to the next level.

Washington Wizards – Arenas wasn't the problem

The Wizards were almost there, they were so close. 

To a title? 

Heaven’s no...  To building a team the right way. 

They had extreme cap flexibility due to Rashard Lewis’ eventual expiring contract and had a plethora of young big men between Vesley, Booker, Seraphin and McGee who were improving talents.  Sure the team may have headed back to the lotto assuming no moves were made, but perhaps with a nice draft pick, strategically using their cap space in trades to net even more promising talent, the team could be contenders in a few seasons.  Too bad they jumped the gun. 

It is somewhat understandable dealing McGee due to his bone headed plays and bad karma with the team, but to get an aging, injury-prone center on a long contract who actually makes the team sniff .500 is not the greatest thing.  Like the Warriors, the Wizards compounded their errors.  Seeing that Nene made the team a legit 8^th seed, first round exit threat, management decided to go full throttle and added veterans Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor while dealing one of their most promising assets, Lewis’ massive expiring contract. 

This is the NBA’s form of P.E.

Mavs, Raptors, Nets  - I get it.

Dallas is aging and can’t deal their franchise loveable German just yet.  Keeping him; however, ensures the team is talented enough to at least sniff the playoffs, but can’t further develop any youth via minutes or touches.

The Raptors added Lowry which puts them in this list as well not to mention the contract shelled out to Bargnani.  This could be a GM trying to interview for his next job though.  Colangelo is on the last year of his deal and likely would like to at least show his team improved on his next job interview.

The Nets just moved to Brooklyn and are desperate to make some noise in the much hyped up move.  Their owner also has the money to blow and seems more than happy with a few sell outs and an early playoff exit.

Bucks – I don’t get it

The Bucks simply make little sense.  They have a high usage point guard who is trigger happy, so they pair him with a similar talent in Ellis?  Also, both are upcoming free agents.  They also have a plethora of young big men but shelled out cash to the never young Samuel Dalembert?!

These teams are never truly stuck as there are GMs out there who may take on an expensive aging vet for a title run and/or be interested in their youth for a chance at rebuilding.  The choice is up to these teams though to make sure they do such moves sooner rather than later.  Or else, they’ll end up like the Warriors…which sort of like the Yankees…seem to always say hey, fork it! 

Can the Lakers Win It All? Just Ask Kobe

Should the Lakers be Considered Favorites to win the Title?

 

A poll was done this past week surveying GMs across the league asking them who would win the 2013 NBA Championship.  First off, it is at the very least refreshing to see majority of GMs honest with their teams current situations and not immediately say their own franchise would be crowned champs in 2013 (with the exception of 3 of course).  The poll showed that roughly 70% of General Managers in the league felt the Miami Heat would repeat as champions, followed by 24% for the Los Angeles Lakers and 6% for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Those three seem like plausible choices to receive the O’Brien in July, but the percentages are what’s interesting.  Bear in mind the Miami Heat were a Boston 4^th quarter collapse from not even making the finals this past summer.  They did add some nice shooters in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but their moves pale in comparison to those made by the Lakers.

LA has added a boat load of talent

The Lakers added two eventual Hall of Famers to a team that was already good enough to make the Western Finals last year.  Looking at both lineups briefly the talent level is at least even, one could theoretically make an argument for either Miami or LA being the better team on paper.  Nash/Kobe/MTP/Gasol/Howard or Chalmers/Wade/James/Bosh/Anthony…it’s certainly close…closer than 70% vs. 24%. 

So why are GMs that much more sour on the Lakers chances than the Heat?  Truth is, the percentage for LA should actually be smaller.

The Lakers have extremely efficient performers namely Pau Gasol now joining Steve Nash and Dwight Howard in the fray.  The bigger question is will they all even have enough touches?

Kobe loves his touches

Last season Kobe Bryant occupied over 37% of the Lakers’ possessions when on the floor.  Let’s do some simple Math.  There are 5 players on the floor, so the average player should have a usage rate of 20% (100%/5).   Now the point guard brings the ball up the floor and typically starts many of the team’s sets, so we would expect his usage rate to be above 20%, likely in that 22-23% range.  If we remove that point guard there should be roughly 77% to be split among the remaining 4 members of the unit. 

Let’s dive further.   Last season the Lakers had spot-up point guards on the floor for majority of the time (namely Steve Blake and Derek Fisher) whose usage rates were far lower than a regular point guard, more in the 15-18% range.  Next season Steve Nash should command a usage rate that is more typical with your average point guard, at around 22-23% (which would be a slight dip from his Phoenix days which we can assume since he is going to a team that won’t rely on him as much to be the sole offensive table setter).  So again, that means 77% split among the remaining 4 players: Howard, Gasol, Peace, and of course Mr. Bryant.

If Kobe occupies 37% of possessions then that’s 40% (77% - 37%) to be split among Howard, Gasol and Peace.  Let’s assume Peace occupies the same usage rate he did last season (roughly 15%) then that’s only 12.5% a piece for the most efficient 4/5 tandem in the league in Gasol and Howard, far less than the league average.  You may say why would Peace have any usage rate there?  Even the most defensive minded/ off the ball 3s in the league have usage rates in double figures as they will inevitably have a portion of the possessions run through them just by being on the floor and playing closer to the perimeter (as Peace does).

You may be thinking that last season was an aberration for Kobe, but the Lakers did still have the most efficient 4/5 tandem in Bynum and Gasol and majority of possessions did not go through either of them. 

Are things different now for the Lakers?

Things are a different now with Steve Nash though.  If he runs the offense accordingly you better believe Kobe will see less touches, but how much less?  Also, how many less possessions would he need to occupy for the team to be optimal in offensive efficiency?

Those answers are uncertain, but let’s think conservatively.  Let’s say due to Nash and a fondness to see Howard in the post more, Kobe’s usage rate drops to 30%.  That now means 32% between Howard and Gasol, 16% each and still far less than the league average.  The goal should be to have your most efficient offensive talents see as many touches as possible, or in the Lakers’ case above league average.  In order for that to happen, Kobe would need to play primarily off the ball and drop his usage rate all the way down to 22% (100% - 23%[Nash] – 15%[Artest] – 40%[Howard/Gasol]).  Considering Kobe’s need to be a primary player in crunch time, run perimeter ISO sets and the lack of control Coach Brown has on the Black Mamba that seems unlikely.

Can Kobe learn the ultimate lesson?

Kobe needs to put his ego aside and take a page out of Paul Pierce’s book in Boston.  The Truth welcomed KG and Ray Allen in the summer of 2007 not only with open arms but with a larger share of the team’s possessions.  Pierce’s usage rate dropped dramatically that season but his true shooting percentage increased as the big three led the Celts to their first title in 22 years.  The same could easily be done in Los Angeles, but not if Kobe Bryant has anything to do about it.