NBA Story Lines Down The Stretch

Story lines Worth Keeping an Eye On      

As the second half, or really the latter third, of the NBA season is in full swing we can’t help but notice several story lines we need to keep an eye on.

LA’s Playoff Push

I hate writing about the Lakers, but it is starting to seem their playoff push is coming to fruition.  Utah and Houston are clinging to the 7^th and 8^th seed, but it is appearing more likely that the Lakers will jump one of them into the post season.

The Jazz are the more likely candidates to fall out of the picture given their awful point guard depth which has left their crunch time decision making to the young wings of Alec Burks and Gordon Heyward.  Their starting PG last night was Earl Watson and it has typically been Jamaal Tinsley.  Side note, literally every team in the entire league has TWO point guards better than those two of the Jazz (some have four such as the Pistons with Calderon, Knight, Stuckey and Bynum.  I’m writing this on a bus, so I don’t really have a good research tool.  The only second string point guards who are worse than either Earl or JT are Chris Duhon of the Lakers….and….nope, I’d rather have Livingston and Jeremy Pargo….rather have Toney Douglas, Beno Udrih, Ish Smith, John Lucas III and AJ Price.  (If you know of a worse PG rotation than the current Utah PG rotation over the last 20 years, place it in the comments below.)

Also, if the Lakers do get the 8^th seed that really sucks for the Spurs.  In recent memory the Spurs always kick ass in the regular season and get screwed with a terrible 1^st rd match up.  The Grizzlies were just a bad team for them to go against and facing a hot Lakers team may not be much better either.

Paul Pierce Finding the Fountain of Youth

Have you seen recent Celtic box scores lately?  Ya know the ones that show Pierce flirting with a triple double on a nightly basis like it’s a girl who’s into sternum scars from across the room (too soon?).

With no PG in tow Pierce has had to take the role of play maker and has done a remarkable job doing so.  Obviously he and KG form a very efficient pick and roll tandem, but Paullie is also doing a solid job getting the likes of Green, Bradley and Lee going offensively.  What’s most impressive of all is how the added play making responsibilities have not hampered Pierce physically as his minute total has seen a sharp increase since Rondo’s injury.

Nobody Beats the Wiz

Since the return of Wall the Wizards are well over .500 and Bradley Beal has looked like a ROY candidate as a result.  Washington’s lineup finally makes sense in the half court with an already established post and kick game with Nene/Okafor commanding double teams in the post, and now a slash and kick game with Wall’s arrival.  All of this has meant more “kick outs” for Beal to take full advantage.

Is Dirk Done?

Nobody has really talked about Dallas’ pretty steep decline this season.  The thought was that with Dirk’s injury the excuses were there.  The interesting thing is; however, Dirk’s return has not helped the Mavs much.  Dallas has a similar record pre and post Nowitzki’s return and are bracing for a huge shopping spree in the off-season, but who can they lure to play next to the quickly declining Nowitzki.

Can Bogut Give the Dubs Anything?

Andrew Bogut must be the most frustrating player to have on your roster.  When he gets healthy and gives you even 25 MPG, the impacts on both ends of the floor are enormous.  Bogut is a very underrated passing big man who commands double teams and can easily find open shooters like Curry, Thompson, Barnes and Jack on the perimeter.  Defensively, he has always been part of one of the league’s top 10 defensive units and has had rebounding rates in the top 10% of 4/5s in the league…again all when healthy.

It seemed roughly a month ago Bogut turned a corner.  The Warriors were coming back to Earth a bit record wise, but Bogut’s return helped propel their winning ways further.  Now Andrew is on the shelf again.  If he can make it back to full strength by the playoffs, the Warriors have a solid chance at winning a 1^st round matchup.  No Bogut, no second round.

Wait… So Are the Kings Moving?

I am confused here, can someone help me out?  I thought the Kings were headed to Seattle, changing their name to Sonics and bringing back Shawn Kemp for Emahot night.   Now it seems Sacramento had raised some funding or something to get a new arena in order to save the team, right?  Why is Stern allowing this?

No offense Sacramento fans, aka no one who reads this, you shouldn’t have an NBA team.  Sacramento is close enough to Oakland/SF area and just doesn’t have the wealth, population or general basketball  care to have an NBA team.  Yes, they used to sell out the Arco Arena, but that was when the Kings kicked ass earlier last decade and were the most entertaining team to watch.  They would've sold out if they were in Wyoming.

Seattle got screwed over big time in the OKC move and the process must come full circle so that Seattle can screw over another team to retrieve an NBA team.  Bring the Kings to Seattle, if nothing else to hear the millions of comparisons from Cousins to Kemp (attitude, similar style if you look at older Kemp).

Will Granger's Return Make the Pacers a Threat to Beat the Heat?

In short, no.  Hibbert is really the main player that can dominate a series against the Heat, given the team's weaknesses on the interior.  If he can pull together a decent stretch towards the playoffs and prove his worth as a main post threat…maybe….maybe they lose in 7.

Can the Raps make the Playoffs after starting 4-19?

Toronto has been pretty smokin’ since the Gay deal…and yes that trade was a bit off the 180 degree path.   The interesting notion is though that Rudy Gay’s play has been pretty dreadful as a Raptor.  His TS% is sub 50%, yet his usage rate tips 30% on most nights.  Sounds like a recipe for high usage, sub par efficiency.  So how is Toronto doing this?

The emergence of DeMar has been particularly surprising since Gay’s arrival.  The surprise is that both Gay and DeMar are pretty similar talents, slash heavy wings who demand a high percentage of possessions and can’t shoot too well from the perimeter.  In all honesty, I thought this deal was DOA due to the redundancy of wing talent.  How would one ever compliment the other?

Yet Toronto is doing it.  It is mainly due to DeMar now finally within his correct usage rate, a little over 20%.  There’s also less attention on DeMar which allows for him to accelerate to the lane off a Gay double team and head to the free throw line.  The correct usage rate theory has also helped Kyle Lowry, who may be playing a bit too passively for my liking, but is still picking his spots offensively and not forcing the offense on his own either.

So one bad (Gay) is actually producing two positives.  That and Bargnani has seen a reduction in minutes.  

That always helps.

So, can Toronto continue and make the playoffs?  They are 6 games behind the Bucks at this point, but have one of the easier schedules the rest of the way.  I think it comes down to Friday night’s game against the Pacers and then obviously Saturday night in Milwaukee.  They sweep the weekend, their in, they don’t…everyone may get fired.  If you think about it, it may be the most desperate situation in the league…more so than the Lakers.

EDIT: Actually...I started writing this last night prior to Toronto taking the court in Cleveland and the Bucks playing in Houston.  I thought the Raps could beat an Irving-less Cavs team and the Bucks would falter against the up tempo Rockets.  Looks like the script flipped, causing what should have been a 4 game trail of the 8th seeded Bucks to now a whopping 6 games.  That seems like an insurmountable amount to overcome with only 24 games left.

What a weird way to publish a post.  I wrote this on the bus back from work last night and realized this morning that I forgot to publish it, so I re-read some of the stuff and had to mention that edit.  Sorry for the awkwardness.

Mid-Season Awards & Juicy Predictions

Mid-Season Awards and Predictions

Yeah we had early season predictions, so adding a slew of mid-season ones seems kind of cheap.  Having said that, why not have some mid-season predictions/awards when more information has been accumulated?  Self, I agree…on to it.  Let’s start with the awards.

MVP

LeBron James

Honorable Consideration: Kevin Durant, Chris Paul

Dark Horse: Tony Parker

It’s really James’ award to lose.  The efficiency numbers with the volume of shots he’s taking is absolutely absurd.  Of course with Rose out for the first half, this has also seen the Heat stream roll in the Eastern Conference in the first half.  The only way he doesn’t end up winning this award is an injury or that old classic, voter fatigue, which allowed guys like Karl Malone to win an MVP over Jordan in the late 90s and Nash win it over Duncan earlier last decade.  An interesting side story may be how much love Tony Parker gets in MVP voting.  The Spurs are among the top teams in the West and Parker is producing his best season to date.  Durant is easily the favorite to be 2^nd in voting, but Parker could eventually get in the discussion if he continues this pace and the Spurs land the best record in the league at season’s end.  So, basically this is a watch for who wins second in MVP voting.

Coach of the Year

Mark Jackson

Honorable Consideration: Tom Thibadeu, Mike Woodson, Greg Poppovich

Dark Horse: Frank Vogel, Doc Rivers

If you told me, after watching him as a commentator say classic things like when asked “How do you pronounce Rajon’s name RAH-DJAWN or RAY-DJAWN? – “I never get it wrong, Rondo!” that Mark Action Jackson could win a coach of the year, I’d laugh in your face.  Truth is, is it really so outstanding?  We’ve seen some new-ish coaches randomly win it before like Byron Scott in New Jersey or Mike Brown in Cleveland.  I do think this is different and Mark does deserve much more credit and the ultimate COY accolade over those fellas from seasons past.  The main reason is Brown and Scott’s winning the award had more to do with the overall underratedness at the time of James and Kidd.  The main reason is how highly acclaimed are these coaches since winning the award?  Now, you have to be interested in some of the dark horse candidates who may emerge from the crowd.  Particularly Doc Rivers who has the Celts playing as well as anyone heading into the All Star break.  If the Celts keep that hot trend in the second half and manage to secure a top 4 seed I think he wins it.  Not a bad Vegas bet to place right now.

Most Improved Player

Brook Lopez

Honorable Mention: David Lee, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Jrue Holiday

Dark Horse: Carmelo Anthony, Grevias Vasquez

You may not find a bigger Brook Lopez hater than Eitan A Rosenberg.  The guy doesn’t rebound well for a big (i.e. rebounding rate), plays in adequate help defense and is always an injury waiting to happen. Having said all that even I cannot deny the clear improvements he’s made to his game.   Lopez has emerged as the Nets’ best player and is shockingly living up to the gaudy contract he signed in the off-season.  The Nets are even a dark horse to go deep in the playoffs and that’s with Lopez as the focal point.  Much respect is due at this point.  Golden State’s Lee could surprise some voters if the Warriors find a way to finagle a top 4 seed out West.  Also don’t discount Vasquez who at least wins the underrated fantasy draftee of the season.

Some other obvious awards:

Rookie of the Year – Damian Lillard

Lillard has led Portland into a playoff contender.  This is the same team that is giving Luke Babbitt and Jared Jeffries meaningful minutes on a consistent basis.

6^th Man of the Year – Jamal Crawford

Craw leads the league in 4^th quarter PPG.  That’s really the ultimate type of 6^th man. Someone who can close games for you on a consistent basis.

On to those juicy predictions:

Who Wins the Chip?

For all those Miami Heat fans, I say…yah likely…but ho ho hold on a second.

Yes, the Heat are favorites, but I’m not going to discount the Spurs.  San Antonio looked like favorites in the midst of last season’s playoff run until game 3 against OKC flipped them on their head.  I think if the Spurs can have the best record in the conference they could win the whole damn thing.  Harden was an enormous factor in the Thunder series against the Spurs last season and I also think the Spurs add another major piece (Al Jefferson perhaps) at the trade deadline.  For the sake of being bold, I’m calling the Spurs to win the championship.  Yep…classic voter fatigue syndrome here.

Surprise Team That Makes Deep Playoff Run

As much as I’d love to say the Celtics here I just don’t see it happening.  Boston is on a mighty nice run, but can they handle a New York, Brooklyn, Indiana in a first round series….ya know what they can.  That’s right, switching my response as I type.  I’m picking the Celts to surprise folks in the playoffs and emerge to the ECF.  The other Eastern teams simply don’t wow me minus the Bulls if Rose comes back healthy which is a fairly big if.  Bear in mind, the Celts did bypass the Bulls last season since Rose went down, so I do think if they met the Bulls in the playoffs Chicago wins the series.  Having said that, odds seem that the Bulls end with a 4 seed and a likely 2^nd round match up with the Heat.  If the Celts land a 6 or even 7 seed and a potential road to the ECF which only includes two of New York, Brooklyn, Indiana and Atlanta, I think an Eastern Conference appearance is not out of the realm of possibility.

Surprise Team That Loses In the First Round

The New York Knicks. They are still living off that ridiculously hot stretch from the first half of the season and have dropped off since STAT and Shump have returned to the lineup.  If Woodson can regain that early season magic and take Shump and Amare who don’t seem to fit in the rotation, out of it, then they’ll have a deep playoff run.  But if these trends continue they may just get bounced out of the first round.

Second Half Playoff Push Surprise

The Toronto Raptors.  Raps are 5-2 since the Gay deal and if they can magically muster another trade which simply removes Bargnani they may have the ammo for a nutty playoff run.  There’s also a likelihood that a current playoff team such as the Bucks, Celtics or even Hawks have a moderate to full fledged fire sale (Smith/KG/Pierce/Jennings are rumored in potential trades) that could leave a slot open for a team on the outside looking in to make the post season.

Biggest Disappointing Team for the Second Half

I’ll go with the Brooklyn Nets here only because I have shat on the Knicks enough in this post.  I just don’t see Lopez continuing his super-hot stretch and that the honey moon of PJ Carlisiemo may soon come to an end.  That doesn't mean the Nets fall out of the playoffs, but maybe they lose out on a home court seed and like the Knicks, potentially lose in the first round of the playoffs.

Biggest Disappointing Player in Second Half

How do I not say Carmelo Anthony here?  Sorry Knicks fans, but it’s a simple regression towards the mean.  Anthony has a career 52-53% True Shooting percentage and has had a 57% clip going in the beginning of the year which helped propel the Knicks early season success. Teams have also gotten a bit of the memo that the Knicks are going to chuck threes and that they need to match up a tallish/length SF ala Landry Fields and place him on Melo if he’s starting at the 4 rather than go with your typical bulky starting Power Forward.   Those shooting stats for Melo have already began to dip as have some notable plus minus numbers when playing alongside Amare or even Shumpert.  Unless New York deals those two or takes them out of the rotation it will hurt the Knicks and Melo’s overall game.  Of course in the end of the day, it shouldn't be Melo who you blame for New York’s potential failure, it should be management for not cashing in on Shump while his value is high and his fit is questionable at best.  Of course knowing New York media, they’ll dump on Melo real hard.

Surprise Player in Second Half

Josh Smith.  Yap calling it now. If I’m Atlanta how do I not trade Josh Smith?  With teams like the Suns and even Bucks expected to have gobs of cap space in the off-season and desperate to be going anywhere you better believe Mr. Smith may get that max contract he’s been coveting.  Not saying he’s worth the money, but knowing that information will certainly push the Hawks to move him.  If they do, I see a change of scenery being an immense help for Josh Smith.  Smith also plays for a contract on a new team which will likely increase his stat lines.  A pretty genius idea would be for the Spurs to get involved who do have Jackson’s expiring contract and a slew of underrated young talent in Leonard, Splitter and Blair.  Not sure how a specific trade may work considering the Hawks would like to move Horford to the 4 and perhaps net some young talent in return.  I would think though a Jackson/Splitter/Blair/Future pick for Josh Smith trade idea would certainly peek Atlanta’s interest and I don’t see a better deal out there for him than that.

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NBA Deadline Deals Spectacular

It’s that time of year again – NBA trading deadline time.  Here are a slew of talents that are rumored to be on the move by next Thursday including potential suitors, what the team should do with him and who they’ll likely get for him.  Let’s get to it.

Josh Smith

Suitors: Nets, Raptors, Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs

Dark Horse: Wizards

What Atlanta Should Do: The Wizards should be a dark horse in a potential Josh Smith move.  The team is over .500 since Wall has come back and are missing a go to scorer to compliment Wall.  The team has a slew of mediocre assets including Seraphin, Vesley and even more mediocre in Booker and Crawford.  The question really is what is Atlanta looking for in an Atlanta deal?  You have to think they want a 5 to allow Horford to move to the 4 and assets couldn’t hurt in return.  With the assets mentioned and two 5s on the roster, Washington does have the pieces to make it happen and Smith would look nice long term in a Wizard uni.  Management in DC is also sweating a bit and GM Ernie G should get canned unless the team makes a bold move (yes desperation is a factor here).  Atlanta should seek a deal surrounding Nene, top 3 protected 2013 pick and one of Vesley, Booker or Singleton.  They net nice long term assets and get their dream of seeing what Horford can do at the 4.

What will likely happen:  While the Nets are acting like they aren’t desperate. They are damn desperate.  Mikhail Prokohov didn’t absorb the contracts of Joe Johnson and shell out for Lopez/D-Will and Crash to even finish in the second round.  He seriously wants to see the team in the Eastern Conference finals this season. He said so himself.  Having said that, GM King’s ass is on the line and he has already shown he is willing to move pieces and be aggressive when any talent that could make sense on the roster is available.  Humphries and Brooks shouldn’t be enough to land Smith, but King will likely add Taylor in there along with multiple picks and perhaps see if Wallace has any inkling of value on the open market.   I could see a three way with Utah where Wallace goes to Utah, Humphries, Brooks, Taylor, a 2015 1^st rounder from Brooklyn and the worse of Utah’s 1^st round picks in 2013 (they have theirs and likely Golden State’s) go to Atlanta, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams go to Brooklyn.

Paul Milsap

Suitors: Celtics, Knicks, Raptors, Cavaliers, Magic

Dark Horse: Nets

What Utah Should Do: The Jazz have certainly missed the boat on dealing the Milsap/Jefferson tandem and have waited until their values may not be lower due to their pending free agency. Unfortunately for Utah, many GMs don’t seem to value Milsap’s skills as much as yours truly (he’s freaking awesome!) and don’t have the glut of wings to sacrifice one in a move for Milsap. At this point in order to get a decent wing for their future such as Shumpert, Redick or even DeRozan, the Jazz will need to take back a bad contract such as Al Harrington, Andrea Bargnani or gasp…Amare Stoudemire.  Those wings aren’t worth it. I’d rather deal Big Al who has more value and actually look to retain Milsap in free agency and move forward with a 3 big rotation along with Favors/Kanter.  He’ll get more minutes as a result and with a contract in place his value could only increase in time for next deadline.

What will likely happen: I think Utah agrees to an extent with the above.  They are trying to deal Big Al and they may be hard pressed to get decent value for both bigs.  Paul fits better long term with their young bigs.  That’s not to say they won’t try real hard to deal him, but will ultimately not be willing to take one of the aforementioned albatross contracts to do so.  If the Nets are smart they stop their Smith chase and simply deal Hump and Brooks to net Milsap.

Al Jefferson

Suitors: Spurs, Pistons, Rockets

Dark Horse: Bucks

What Utah Should Do: The Spurs have already been involved in a rumored Jefferson deal and seem willing to deal Splitter in a move to get it done.  I think if your Utah you can involve Orlando in a 3 way deal and fairly easily net JJ Redick and Al Harrington in such a move.  Orlando would love Splitter long term and fully anticipate either dealing JJ or letting him walk in free agency.

What will likely happen: I think this deal honestly goes down.  Fits all three teams quite nicely, Blair could get involved as well.

Dwight Howard

Suitors: Nets

Dark Horse: Hawks

What Lakers Should Do: While the Lakers may listen to some offers, it would be quite foolish to deal Howard at this point especially with an injury to Gasol.  The Nets are really the only team that is confident he’d re-sign there following a trade and the best they could offer is Brook Lopez and Marshon Brooks.  That return wouldn’t improve matters in LA by any means and while Lopez has looked great this season, his lack of D and constant injuries need to be a concern long term.  Stand pat LA.

What will likely happen: A lot of noise, probably dominates deadline talk and nothing happens.  Atlanta should at least see if LA considers a Smith/Pachulia for Howard swap.  I mean why not? Smith is gone anyhow after the season and the team has been running the same middle playoff seed, can’t get past the 2^nd round treadmill for what seems like forever.  If Howard comes back home and feels nostalgic maybe he and Horford are enough to come out of the East.  Can Miami or anyone really compete with that front line in the East? Its very unlikely, but Smith makes a ton of sense in LA with MDA…stranger things have happened.

Eric Gordon

Suitors: Timberwolves, Raptors, Suns

Dark Horse: Pistons

What New Orleans Should Do: Stay put…please.  Let this core gel a bit.  Gordon’s value has taken a hit lately due to a recent series of injuries which may have GMs worrying if he’s worth his price tag simply due to health concerns.  The truth is the Hornets have hovered around .500 since Gordon’s return and the core is too promising to break up at this point.

What will likely happen:  I think some teams take several stabs at him, including the Raptors offering Bargnani+DeRozan+future pick, but ultimately he stays put.  Detroit would be wise to get involved at this bargain offer.  A Drummond/Calderon expiring and 2013 pick would be a hard offer not to accept if your New Orleans.  Monroe/Gordon/Knight is mighty nice long term in Detroit.  Too bad it wont happen.

Kevin Garnett

Suitors: Clippers, Spurs, Thunder

Dark Horse: Nets

What the Celts Should Do: The Thunder really are the most sensible team in a potential Garnett move.  They have Jeremy Lamb, Eric Maynor and Toronto’s 2013 pick they could potentially offer in a move.  Plus such a move would mean old favorite Kendrick Perkins likely comes back to Boston who is best buddies with Rondo.  The Celts have been playing well of late, but odds are they still don’t go beyond the 2^nd round in the off-season and do run a risk that KG retires at season’s end.

What will likely happen: KG stays put.  I know…it’s getting boring all these guys are staying put.  I just don’t see a team offering more than the Clippers’ offer of Bledsoe and short contracts.  That’s not enough to wet Ainge’s beak at the deadline.

Paul Pierce

Suitors: Nuggets, Clippers

Dark Horse: Warriors

What the Celts Should Do: The only team that really could make sense is Denver, but is there offer of Wilson Chandler and JaVale McGee enough?  It might be, but that deal will be there most likely on draft night, so why not make one last playoff push in Boston?

What will likely happen: You really never know with Ainge, if Denver offered Chandler + McGee for Pierce I could see Ainge doing such a deal.  It all depends if the Celts deal KG.  Boston either deals both KG and Pierce or neither.  Since it’d be hard to deal both odds are he’s staying put, but I do believe both won’t be Celtics in 2014 (KG either retires of gets dealt, Pierce gets traded to the Clippers).

Andrea Bargnani

Suitors: Bulls, Lakers

Dark Horse: Nets, Pistons

What the Raptors Should Do: With Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan and Lowry in their backcourt, the last thing this roster needs is more scorers.  Raptors have a lot of dependency on 4/5 Amir Johnson.  There really isn’t anyone else on the roster who can adequately rebound, defend the paint and give you more than 25 minutes in the process.  Toronto should seek Humphries in such a deal who would fill in that role and be a better fit considering their core.

What will likely happen: I think Bargnani gets traded.  To where is really the biggest question right now.  He may be the hardest player to predict where he gets moved at the deadline.  Rumors have Chicago in the mix which may make sense if the Bulls want to save some cap.  Would a Bargnani/Fields for Gasol deal be out of the realm of possibility?  I don’t think so.  He makes the most sense on the Lakers truth be told and who is more desperate than LAL right now?  For Toronto, their playoff hopes are seeing less and less likely.  I don’t think Gasol’s injury is the biggest detriment in a trade.  Toronto could start next season with a decent chance at a top 4 seed if Gasol is healthy.  Where he goes it will be a surprising deal, but he will get moved.

Iman Shumpert

Suitors: Suns, Bucks, Jazz

Dark Horse: Magic

What the Knicks Should Do: Phoenix seems to want Shump fairly badly as he would be a nice fit long term in Hunter’s defensive system (can you have a system after 2 weeks?).  The Suns are underrating defensive guru and efficient spacing wing Jared Dudley and may be willing to attached a top 3 protected 2013 pick along with him in a deal.  If your NYK, make the deal because Dudley actually makes more sense with the current roster and odds are Glen Grunwald will net a player with eventual higher market value than Shump with a top 10 pick in 2013.

What will likely happen: Glen is one of the more underrated GMs in the league.  He has made some brilliant under the radar signings in the off-season and it would not surprise me if he cashes in on Shump’s value while it is this high.  I do believe either the aforementioned Phoenix deal, or perhaps a Utah deal to net Milsap is not out of the realm of possibility for New York.

RaGone For The Season

Gam Zeh L’Tova

Why the recent injury to Rondo is in a weird way is actually great for the Celtics future.

Let me preface this post by saying the Celtics are better overall with Rondo on the floor.  Sure some folks out there like the Celts’ play by play announcer Sean Grande have pointed out how poor the team’s offensive efficiencies are this season with Rondo and how he only shows up when the games are nationally televised.

Two very fair points.

It is true that when Rondo is on the court the rest of the Celtics do a bit of ball watching which stunts the offense and that Rajon’s inconsistent jump shot doesn’t help matters on the offensive end.  Sean makes another great point as well considering how Rajon only really shows up in big games.  He can average a triple double in a playoff series against the Bulls or put up 47 points in an Eastern Conference finals game in Miami, but if there’s a Tuesday night showdown in Toronto expect Rondo to play somewhat apathetically.

Given those fairly accurate statements, no one in their right mind would indicate the Celtics are indeed better without Rondo.  The team really doesn’t have any other pure offensive creator and someone that can simply take over games the way he can, even if it’s only when the Celts are playing when everyone’s watching.  I’d probably rather have it that way than the opposite.  If you’re going to go off for 47, do it in the playoffs vs. against the Bobcats in November.

The Celts are tough minded team though with a veteran locker room.  It is very likely the team bands together and makes a strong push in the playoffs and even advances in the playoffs (if they don’t face Miami in round 1) if they decide to stand put.

Super strong IF there though.

If there’s one thing Danny Ainge preached when he came to Boston it’s that he’s not afraid of making some big moves.  Ask Antoine Walker, Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson.   If there’s one GM trait that is strong with Ainge it’s the notion of self awareness.

Many general managers are unaware of the team’s current state (Bryan Colangelo says hi) and either wait too long to deal some youth in hopes of contending (remember those Blazers teams of a few years ago when it was just all potential, but they were a 50 win team) or are too impatient and deal valuable assets for veterans when the youth needs more time to gel (Ernie Grunfeld of Washington says what’s up....Lewis’ fat expiring when the hefty CBA provisions are about to kick in and you use it to net Ariza and Okafor…bleh….had the Wizards still had Lewis wouldn’t they be major players to land Rudy Gay from the cap conscience Grizzlies?...not a bad future side kick for Wall).

Not Danny Though.  Which is why he is going to make moves and likely deal Pierce and Garnett (and maybe the Jet too…why not) this deadline.   It’s time and Ainge also will likely learn the lesson from Dumars waiting too long to deal their vets in Detroit.  Quick history lesson, Detroit in 2008 loses to Boston in 6 games in the Eastern Conference Finals.  The next season they go through a tail spin, hang onto the 8^th seed only to enter the playoffs and get spanked by the James and the Cavs.   The team is getting old and featuring some solid vets like Hamilton and Prince (Billups was dealt in that season for AI) with some decent trade value.  Dumars essentially waits too long with these vets, who end up losing trade value and eventually become salary dumps.  The Pistons inevitably rebuild too late and are now still in a long rebuilding process due to the error of waiting by Joe.

Do Pierce and Garnett have any value?

They do to the right team.  

It was already reported that the Clippers were interested in Garnett, willing to trade Caron Butler and Eric Bledsoe for him.  So teams are interested.  Don’t sneeze too much at that value for Garnett either.  Bledsoe is one of the more sought after young point guards in the league and could provide the Celtics with a great starting point guard for their future (no Rondo?...I’ll get to that in a second).  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t love that trade.  Ultimately for KG I’m looking at OKC who has Jeremy Lamb, Eric Maynor and Toronto’s first round pick.  I would love those assets in a Garnett deal.  I think OKC is realistic and understands that their current lineup may win the West, but ultimately falls to the Heat in a finals re-match (or has issues if they face the Clippers in the playoffs).  Garnett is a huge piece that could easily place them over the top.  Garnett for Perkins (need his contract to make it work), Lamb and that Raptors 2013 pick would be mighty nice for Boston’s future.

Next stop....beep beep Mr. Pierce.

We can look back at the Clippers and simply try and acquire those some assets for Garnett with Terry included and Odom’s expiring coming back.  Yeah it’s crappy return for Pierce, but his contract isn’t too sweet given his age and the tax ramifications and the team needs a point guard for a potential leverage Rondo deal on draft day 2013 (I’ll get to that).  A more realistic trade may be with Denver.

Wilson Chandler + JaVale McGee for Paul Pierce

Denver needs to consolidate their pieces a bit and find a way to advance in the playoffs.  Pierce and Iggy could make a lot of sense at the wings together and could mean a nice playoff run for Denver.

Return wise for the Celts? Not too earth shattering.  The saving grace though is Boston adds pieces that make a ton of sense long term with Rondo (if they want to keep him) and net some two-way talent and flat out become a deep team.

If we assume the team is on board with the OKC and Denver deals, here’s where we end up with (Rondo on the shelf):

PF B. Bass/ J. Green

SF W. Chandler/ J. Green

C  J. McGee/ K. Perkins/ J. Collins

SG A. Bradley/ J. Lamb

PG C. Lee/ L. Barbosa

IR R. Rondo, J. Sullinger

Feel free to move around some parts if you prefer the KG-Bledsoe trade which was already offered FYI.  Oh and if you don’t love Perkins needing to be there, we can always ship him to Golden State for Biedrins and a future pick.  That good Myers?  Cool thanks.

Regardless of what deals you want for Pierce and KG, the idea is to get younger and either have a team that can run with Rondo or set yourself up for a full rebuild.  Here we do both.

If you’re a Celtics fan that lineup above probably makes you want to shilshul a bit.  Totally understand.  Heck, that team still has a decent total salary, some nice potential sure, but not enough to rebuild.

Well…just like Rome wasn’t built in a day neither is a full-fledged rebuild.  Some time you need to deal a veteran for a younger talent who several GMs enamor (you’d be surprised how many GMs are actually secretly obsessed with Wilson Chandler for example).

The lineup above can easily be changed around on draft day and set the Celts up in 2014 for a major tank for what is supposedly going to be a solid draft featuring Andrew Wiggins and Jabaradi Parker.

I think that’s really the ultimate goal, to have a team ready for the 2014 tank.

Which brings us back to our original topic about Rondo.  Is he really the future of the team?  I think ultimately it makes sense to deal Pierce and Garnett to get younger, but really just to get bad.  Get some youth in the rotation and set yourself up for a major trade fest either on draft night  or next February and get ready for that 2014 draft.  If that also means dealing Rondo…which it likely does…then so long Rajon.

Look, the last time the Celtics tanked in 2007 they landed the 5^th pick in a top heavy draft, missing out on Oden and Durant.  Yet, they were still able to use that pick to land Ray Allen which then gave the team enough ammo to persuade KG to accept a trade to Boston which of course led to their 17^th title.

Tanking for the sake of tanking makes no sense.  You want to tank this year for Cody Zeller…go ahead, your netting a solid but not great future center…aka Meh City.

But if you tank in a year when the draft is supposed to be great.  That tank job actually works (ask the Spurs in ’97, Orlando in ’92, Cleveland in ’03).  That is Boston’s ultimate path.  To quote chumbawumba “you get knocked, but you get up again”…and yes I just ended the post by quoting tubthumping….because we’ll be singing when we’re winning.