Houston: We Have A Stud - Analyzing the Harden to Rockets Trade

James Harden is Better Than You Think

Let's re-evaluate the biggest trade thus far this off-season.  Harden to Houston?  No, let's discuss Dwight Howard's move to the Lakers.

Howard deal in a semi large nut shell

Dwight Howard will likely finish his career as one of the top ten greatest centers ever.  Heck, maybe ten is too high.  Who's better than him in NBA history, or rather, if the following centers were in their prime who would you take and in what order (honestly, I'd like to know, post your order in the comments section...do it...c'mon)?

Shaquille O'neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Bob Pettit, Bob Lanier, Nate Thurmond, Wes Unseld, Alonzo Mourning, Moses Malone, Bill Walton, Dwight Howard

Regardless, this league is empty of centers.  Let's do the same ranking game with current 5s in the league (post yours in the comments section).

Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, Nene, JaVale McGee, Al Horford (more of a 4), Anderson Varejao, Serge Ibaka, Joakim Noah, Andrew Bynum, Greg Monroe, Roy Hibbert, Omer Asik, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol.

FYI the above is in random order.  Want better proof than just names?  How about the max or near max deals shelled out in the past two summers to Roy Hibbert, Andrew Bynum, Brook Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol and the perceived nutty amount of money shelled out to Omer Asik (Another FYI, I like the Asik deal).

Why is this important?  It shows how significant Dwight Howard really is.  Teams are willing to spend boat loads of money on half-way decent centers, none of whom currently even sniff the jock strap of Mr. Howard.

Right I know....Howard is great.  So What?

Well, now let's circle back to the original point, the Howard to Orlando deal. 

Orlando dealt a future hall of famer who also plays the most sought after position in the league, who they knew they could not keep, for guard Arron Afflalo and forward Al Harrington from Denver and forward Moe Harkless and center Nikola Vucevic from Philadelphia and forward Josh McRoberts and guard Christian Eyenga from the Lakers.  Sure they dealt the bad contracts of Chris Duhon and Jason Richardson (FYI, 3rd FYI of the post, J-Rich's deal isn't a bad one.  More than likely last seasons's low 3 FG% of 36.8% was flukey considering it was the lowest since his rookie year), but also netted the bad contracts of Al Harrington and really Arron Afflalo who is paid way too much for an efficient, but low usage rate wing.

Now, OKC is kind of in a similar situation with Harden that Orlando was with Howard.  There was no Dwightmare or in James' case, Hardened View, but the notion was the same.  Up-coming free agent that will get max deal can't stay with current team.  Harden's reasons seemed financial, Dwight's a bit douchier, more fame perhaps?  Either way both teams needed to deal their respective talents.

The returns of the trades

So we saw what Orlando got in that deal.  Odds are unless you follow the NBA religiously, you haven't heard of every player in that trade.  If you're a casual fan, have you even heard of the main pieces in the deal? 

Quick, 5 seconds, what teams have Arron Afflalo played for?  Did you know that without Google-ing it?  Well, either way, he was the main part of that Howard trade.

OKC received Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and a slew of draft picks in exchange for Harden.  That's a much better return than what Orlando received for Dwight.

Sounds like a clear rip-off for Houston then, right? 

Not so fast.

It's a bit different because Harden's issue was financial.  He wanted more money.  He wanted a MAX deal.  He'll get one with Houston.  So the Rockets, unlike the Lakers, know the player they received via trade will likely stay there long term.

 

Another factor, the 2-guard slot is perhaps just as scarce as the center slot in the league

Remember that center list from earlier? 

Let's see the top shooting guards in the league today:

Kobe Bryant, Iggy, Joe Johnson, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Martin, James Harden, Paul George, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Manu Ginobili and I am struggling to find more names. 

Pretty weak, especially when we compare it to other times in NBA history.  This is true with centers as well.

Let's focus a bit more on the stud that is James Harden.

 

Three factors are crucial in a franchise player. 

I won't go into all of the factors that go into a franchise player, but three main ones you want initially are young age, ability to occupy a decent portion of possessions, and either have a high true shooting percentage (TS%) or high assist rate (AR), both...nuch besser.

Harden is 23 years old - check

Harden occupied over 20% of OKC's possessions last year, bear in mind that's with Westbrook and Durant, two extremely high usage rate possessors on the roster. - check

Harden had a TS% of 66% last season (average is 52.7%) and AR of 24.7 (average is 19.2) - check on both.

To put that full list of very critical stats in perspective, no player in the league last season...not even LeBron James, combined a usage rate of over 20%, with a TS% of over 61% and an AR of over 24%.  Oh, did I mention he's only 23.

Fact, James Harden inhibits skills that very few wings in this league have and is only now starting to enter his prime. 

Did Houston make a good trade here?  Aw hell yeah!

Not to trash OKC here, but they got a great deal as well considering their situation.  They knew they could not afford Harden and were able to net quality replacements in Kevin Martin and a young Jeremy Lamb in this trade.  Hell, they got several picks too!  Not shabby.

Don't knock Houston or Harden here though.  GM Daryl Morey made a slew of heavily criticized, but underrated moves this off-season in signing Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin (I'm not going to defend that in this post, but maybe another one. Quick snippet version, he'll sell out crowds and though his sample size was small last year, few players ever had that advanced stat line over a 26 game period) and now with the Harden deal.

James was masked a bit, being the 3rd banana in OKC's system and regulated to 6th man.  He'll be a focal point for defenses in Houston.  This could effect him a bit, sure, but still worth a nice calculated risk for Houston.

Final prediction: James Harden is that good, he's only 23 and in his first year he will lead the Rockets to the playoffs. 

One mistake OKC may have made.  Did they explore all options to really clear enough cap space to sign Harden to a max deal or did they simply not think he was worth such a large contract? 

I would have explored Perkins or even Ibaka deals, to try and shed some salary and get cap back some talent in the process (how about Perkins for Pachulia, similar but worse talent, and nice salary shed...I think Atlanta does that too!).

Either way he's gone now, and perhaps so are OKC's title hopes.  Now there's new hope in Houston and a young star to help lead the way.  Can Harden be a number one guy?  The advanced stats seem to say so and the system in Houston should cater to his skill set well.

Well done, Houston, well done.    

You Just Got Forked - Basketball Purgatory

Basketball Purgatory: The NBA’s Version of No Man’s Land

Every season you have a small set of teams that are at the bottom and likely lottery bound and an even smaller amount that have a true chance at a championship.  In actuality, the 30 teams in the league can be classified in even more ways.
 

The New York Yankees

First off, you have your teams who believe they are title contenders.  This list consists not only of the legit title contenders (i.e. teams that GMs have voted to win the title, see previous post), but also of teams who have maxed out their cap space and are in title or bust mode.  If they don’t win the title the fans of those teams will be disappointed along with players and front office personnel alike.  This is also known as the Yankees every year. This list of course includes the Heat, Lakers and Thunder, but also the Celtics and Spurs.

Strategic Hopefuls

Now let’s check out the opposite side of the spectrum.  Yes, these may be lottery bound teams but they have a plan in place for the future.  These teams either have a lot of cap flexibility, hefty minute allocation towards their youth, or perhaps both.  A good name here are the Strategic Hopefuls due to a likely organized strategic way of trying to get themselves eventually back (or perhaps for the first time) to contention.  This list includes the Bobcats, Cavs, Magic, Kings, Pistons, Rockets, Hornets, Blazers and Suns (albeit unintentionally).

Some of you may say that it seems like you are either rebuilding or contending, well we’re not done with the groups yet.

Up and Comers

I know, real cliche title.  These teams have a solid youth core, perhaps some veterans, and seem poised to be title contenders…next year, or maybe the year after.  Still, kudos to their front office as they are likely going to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs and have a core that should be in the mix for the championship circa 2015.  Our potential ’15 title contenders are the Sixers, Pacers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Hawks and Jazz.

An Injury Away

Another real simple title here.  The following teams may have little cap flexibility, but they do have star power, pure talent and could flirt with a deep run in the playoffs.  Heck, if someone from a top team (Heat, Lakers, Thunder) get hurt they have a chance to catapult up to that Yankees list.  These teams are essentially an injury away, albeit from one of their competitors, of being a threat in the post season.  The teams that may look to hire a mobster to hurt either LeBron or Durant are the Knicks, Bulls (assuming Rose is healthy) and Clippers.

NBA Purgatory

Oh you didn't see your favorite team on any of the above list…uh oh.   

The in-betweeners, the stuck in the middlers, or how about the what the hell are you freakin doingers.  Whatever you want to call them, these teams are essentially in the worst situation of any group.  Too little cap flexibility or enough trade assets to make serious moves to become a contender and essentially too good to build through the draft or due to cap restraints, through free agency.  These are essentially fork in the road teams, except they are the fork.  Your forkers are the Wizards, Bucks, Mavericks, Warriors, Nets, and Raptors.

What went wrong?

These teams made some classic humanistic errors.  You can call them over-eager.  They were young at one point, had a surprise season and sniffed the playoffs.  Then their GMs went truly nutty and just spent their cap space too soon and showed tremendous impatience.

 

You can simply call them delusional.  They think they are more talented than they are, have set high standards and will get disappointed quickly as they already have tried spending their way to contention. The latter thinking is typically where you see firings occur.

Let’s hone in on each team and see what went wrong.

Golden State Warriors – Were they ever right?

The Warriors had only made the playoffs once since 1994.  More than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs in a season and the Warriors only made it one time in an 18 year span.  Here’s what likely went wrong.  In 1995, the Warriors had the first pick of the draft and selected Joe Smith, solid vet, but certainly not a star. Later in the 2000s they had a slew of top 10 picks, including several in the top 10, but Jason Richardson, Mike Dunleavy JR and Troy Murphy just became overpaid rotational talent.  Golden State essentially compounded their errors.  Not only did were they consistently not netting studs in the draft, but when their drafted players' contracts were up, they were paying them like franchise saviors.  Also, Golden State didn't strike out in the draft which is actually not a great thing.  Sounds strange right?  Well, the Warriors kept netting good, not great talent which would lead to a good, not great team.  Fast-forward to today the Warriors have a nice young core in place in Curry and Thompson but have over spent on injury prone or non star like vets in Bogut and Lee and thus lack the flexibility needed to really take the team to the next level.

Washington Wizards – Arenas wasn't the problem

The Wizards were almost there, they were so close. 

To a title? 

Heaven’s no...  To building a team the right way. 

They had extreme cap flexibility due to Rashard Lewis’ eventual expiring contract and had a plethora of young big men between Vesley, Booker, Seraphin and McGee who were improving talents.  Sure the team may have headed back to the lotto assuming no moves were made, but perhaps with a nice draft pick, strategically using their cap space in trades to net even more promising talent, the team could be contenders in a few seasons.  Too bad they jumped the gun. 

It is somewhat understandable dealing McGee due to his bone headed plays and bad karma with the team, but to get an aging, injury-prone center on a long contract who actually makes the team sniff .500 is not the greatest thing.  Like the Warriors, the Wizards compounded their errors.  Seeing that Nene made the team a legit 8^th seed, first round exit threat, management decided to go full throttle and added veterans Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor while dealing one of their most promising assets, Lewis’ massive expiring contract. 

This is the NBA’s form of P.E.

Mavs, Raptors, Nets  - I get it.

Dallas is aging and can’t deal their franchise loveable German just yet.  Keeping him; however, ensures the team is talented enough to at least sniff the playoffs, but can’t further develop any youth via minutes or touches.

The Raptors added Lowry which puts them in this list as well not to mention the contract shelled out to Bargnani.  This could be a GM trying to interview for his next job though.  Colangelo is on the last year of his deal and likely would like to at least show his team improved on his next job interview.

The Nets just moved to Brooklyn and are desperate to make some noise in the much hyped up move.  Their owner also has the money to blow and seems more than happy with a few sell outs and an early playoff exit.

Bucks – I don’t get it

The Bucks simply make little sense.  They have a high usage point guard who is trigger happy, so they pair him with a similar talent in Ellis?  Also, both are upcoming free agents.  They also have a plethora of young big men but shelled out cash to the never young Samuel Dalembert?!

These teams are never truly stuck as there are GMs out there who may take on an expensive aging vet for a title run and/or be interested in their youth for a chance at rebuilding.  The choice is up to these teams though to make sure they do such moves sooner rather than later.  Or else, they’ll end up like the Warriors…which sort of like the Yankees…seem to always say hey, fork it! 

Can the Lakers Win It All? Just Ask Kobe

Should the Lakers be Considered Favorites to win the Title?

 

A poll was done this past week surveying GMs across the league asking them who would win the 2013 NBA Championship.  First off, it is at the very least refreshing to see majority of GMs honest with their teams current situations and not immediately say their own franchise would be crowned champs in 2013 (with the exception of 3 of course).  The poll showed that roughly 70% of General Managers in the league felt the Miami Heat would repeat as champions, followed by 24% for the Los Angeles Lakers and 6% for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Those three seem like plausible choices to receive the O’Brien in July, but the percentages are what’s interesting.  Bear in mind the Miami Heat were a Boston 4^th quarter collapse from not even making the finals this past summer.  They did add some nice shooters in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, but their moves pale in comparison to those made by the Lakers.

LA has added a boat load of talent

The Lakers added two eventual Hall of Famers to a team that was already good enough to make the Western Finals last year.  Looking at both lineups briefly the talent level is at least even, one could theoretically make an argument for either Miami or LA being the better team on paper.  Nash/Kobe/MTP/Gasol/Howard or Chalmers/Wade/James/Bosh/Anthony…it’s certainly close…closer than 70% vs. 24%. 

So why are GMs that much more sour on the Lakers chances than the Heat?  Truth is, the percentage for LA should actually be smaller.

The Lakers have extremely efficient performers namely Pau Gasol now joining Steve Nash and Dwight Howard in the fray.  The bigger question is will they all even have enough touches?

Kobe loves his touches

Last season Kobe Bryant occupied over 37% of the Lakers’ possessions when on the floor.  Let’s do some simple Math.  There are 5 players on the floor, so the average player should have a usage rate of 20% (100%/5).   Now the point guard brings the ball up the floor and typically starts many of the team’s sets, so we would expect his usage rate to be above 20%, likely in that 22-23% range.  If we remove that point guard there should be roughly 77% to be split among the remaining 4 members of the unit. 

Let’s dive further.   Last season the Lakers had spot-up point guards on the floor for majority of the time (namely Steve Blake and Derek Fisher) whose usage rates were far lower than a regular point guard, more in the 15-18% range.  Next season Steve Nash should command a usage rate that is more typical with your average point guard, at around 22-23% (which would be a slight dip from his Phoenix days which we can assume since he is going to a team that won’t rely on him as much to be the sole offensive table setter).  So again, that means 77% split among the remaining 4 players: Howard, Gasol, Peace, and of course Mr. Bryant.

If Kobe occupies 37% of possessions then that’s 40% (77% - 37%) to be split among Howard, Gasol and Peace.  Let’s assume Peace occupies the same usage rate he did last season (roughly 15%) then that’s only 12.5% a piece for the most efficient 4/5 tandem in the league in Gasol and Howard, far less than the league average.  You may say why would Peace have any usage rate there?  Even the most defensive minded/ off the ball 3s in the league have usage rates in double figures as they will inevitably have a portion of the possessions run through them just by being on the floor and playing closer to the perimeter (as Peace does).

You may be thinking that last season was an aberration for Kobe, but the Lakers did still have the most efficient 4/5 tandem in Bynum and Gasol and majority of possessions did not go through either of them. 

Are things different now for the Lakers?

Things are a different now with Steve Nash though.  If he runs the offense accordingly you better believe Kobe will see less touches, but how much less?  Also, how many less possessions would he need to occupy for the team to be optimal in offensive efficiency?

Those answers are uncertain, but let’s think conservatively.  Let’s say due to Nash and a fondness to see Howard in the post more, Kobe’s usage rate drops to 30%.  That now means 32% between Howard and Gasol, 16% each and still far less than the league average.  The goal should be to have your most efficient offensive talents see as many touches as possible, or in the Lakers’ case above league average.  In order for that to happen, Kobe would need to play primarily off the ball and drop his usage rate all the way down to 22% (100% - 23%[Nash] – 15%[Artest] – 40%[Howard/Gasol]).  Considering Kobe’s need to be a primary player in crunch time, run perimeter ISO sets and the lack of control Coach Brown has on the Black Mamba that seems unlikely.

Can Kobe learn the ultimate lesson?

Kobe needs to put his ego aside and take a page out of Paul Pierce’s book in Boston.  The Truth welcomed KG and Ray Allen in the summer of 2007 not only with open arms but with a larger share of the team’s possessions.  Pierce’s usage rate dropped dramatically that season but his true shooting percentage increased as the big three led the Celts to their first title in 22 years.  The same could easily be done in Los Angeles, but not if Kobe Bryant has anything to do about it.