Thursday, November 15, 2012

Putting the Crazy LA LA in Los Angeles



What’s been happening in LA?  A Crazy Call You Have to Read to Believe

The Lakers got into panic mode really quickly this season.  What’s even more comical about their recent sense of urgency is that no one is surprised.  Mike Brown let Kobe control the team and had some very questionable coaching decisions in recent memory.  Two major items standout: one micro, one macro.

Micro blunder

Let’s start in the Western Conference finals last season with the Lakers down two to the Oklahoma City Thunder and 7 seconds left on the clock.  The Lakers called time out and coach Brown designed a play that was supposed to get Kobe a clean look and potentially send the series back to LA with the Lakers in control.

Now many of you remember what happened next.  Peace couldn't find a cutting Bryant sprinting away from the ball towards the far corner and instead found an open Steve Blake who missed the three, game over, OKC controls series.

You shouldn't mind that look by Blake.  He’s an efficient spacing point guard who has hit that three on many occasions.  What I do mind is the play itself.  Brown had designed a play where the intended recipient needed to cut away from the ball requiring Peace to turn into Aaron Rodgers in order to make the appropriate pass across the court to find him. 

That play was dissected to death by the media afterwards and opened up many glaring questions around Brown’s late game coaching, particularly due to how hard he defended it afterwards.

Macro blunder

We need to discuss this Princeton offense thing for a moment.  The team just inherited two hall of famers and had arguably the most talented starting lineup in the NBA, certainly the Western Conference.  That also means you have two players who need to learn your system and get acclimated so their talents can take care of the rest. 

Instead of keeping last season’s offensive system which would require only Nash and Howard to learn, Brown opted for a new offense which would require the entire team to learn from scratch.  If you have a lot of changes in your lineup, have the most talented team in the conference, why would you drastically change your offensive set?

Enter D’Antoni

FYI, I don’t hate this hiring. 

Everyone is talking about Phil Jackson and that LA needed to ensure they signed him with such a talented team.  Personally, I’m not buying Mitch Kupchack’s statement that the team was wary of their players fitting well in the triangle.  

I do feel Phil wanted to be GM/Coach of the team and wanted full power or at the very least Mitch felt threatened that this would inevitably occur.  Either way, I likely would have done the same move if I were Mitch. 

Would you hire someone who has already mentioned his goal is to literally take your job in the near future?  Someone who is honored constantly by the media, fans and most importantly your ownership and franchise player? 

Also, don’t sniff at Mike being an assistant with team USA and coaching Kobe during the last several Olympics helping either. 

Finally, there’s obviously the whole Nash familiarity and the ability to run the floor with Dwight Howard at the 5. 

Guess what though.  The Lakers are not what’s interesting that’s happening in LA LA Land

Great, the Lakers panicked and hired a new coach.  Good for them.  They still won’t win the West.  Neither will OKC due to Harden leaving and now an over dependency on Westbrook in particular.

You know who will?  That other LA team.  That’s right Johnny, let’s go Clippers!

Why the Clippers are legitimate contenders

Contending teams require, for the most part, the following attributes (yes I like lists).
High usage rate player who combines that with high True Shooting percentage and decent assist rate.  Meet Chris Paul.

High rebounding rate and proper interior defense including good help D – D’Andre Jordan is one of the more polished shot blockers in the league and Blake has shown major progress in this area.

      Quality off ball role players with high true shooting percentages – This may seem like a random little addition for contenders, but think about every championship winner.  They’ve all had role players who were very efficient off the ball shooters (Bulls-Paxson/Armstrong/Kerr, Spurs-Horry/Kerr/Bonner, Lakers-Shaw/Fox/George, Celtics-House/Posey). The Clippers are very strong in this area with Matt Barnes, Chauncey Billups (when healthy), and Caron Butler.

      Complimentary Talent – Blake Griffin is ready to bolt as a number two weapon here and as he and CP3 play more together, his overall game should surely grow as a result.

You know what else the Clippers have?  One of the most underrated role players in the last decade, Matt Barnes.  Barnes has consistently finished in the top 10 unadjusted on-off net rating among wings over the past 5 seasons.  The stat measures the net difference per 100 possessions of a certain player on the court vs. off the court.  Over is career Matt’s units were a net 5 points better when he was on the floor.

Depth is a key factor in the regular season, but strong 6-8 man rotations are needed in the playoffs.  Clippers have both a strong deep rotation to go through 82 games, but also a condensed version that may be stronger than any out West.

Clipper fans need not get too excited though, sorry Clipper Darryl

LA may have one of the worst head coaches in the game in Vinny Del Negro.  Vinny has long been criticized as a poor coach among some of his peers and according to several inside sources of yours truly.

Also, being as close as they are to contention, LA should really cash in their biggest trade chip and net a nice 3rd banana that could put them over the top. 

Eric Bledsoe is that asset and has shown enough signs that may lead a team to believe he could be their future starting point guard.  The Clippers already have Jamal Crawford who could play point guard some and really only need a body for 10-15 minutes a night behind CP3.  A Chris Duhon, Ish Smith, or even Earl Boykins who is a free agent would do just fine.

Now the fun part

Let’s concoct some trade ideas involving Bledsoe, likely Caron Butler since he has a contract that should fit a player in such a role, and everyone’s favorite cherry an extra first round pick.

What can that package net? How about Danny Granger

The Pacers have performed well over the years without Granger in their lineup and are in desperate need of a future point guard.  Look, I don’t love Granger, but he would certainly fit as that off the ball wing that can help Blake and Chris on the offensive end more and keep defenses from trapping on the two All Stars.

The bigger question is whether the Clippers are gutsy enough to make such a move.  They already showed their willingness to push the chips in the pot with the Chris Paul trade, now will they make one final move to help secure their title hopes? 

If they don’t they risk not only losing the Western conference, but perhaps Chris Paul himself to free agency.
LA sure is nuts!  There’s a reason they call it LA LA land…cue cheesy womp womp.   

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