James Harden is Better Than You Think
Let's re-evaluate the biggest trade thus far this off-season. Harden to Houston? No, let's discuss Dwight Howard's move to the Lakers.
Howard deal in a semi large nut shell
Dwight Howard will likely finish his career as one of the top ten greatest centers ever. Heck, maybe ten is too high. Who's better than him in NBA history, or rather, if the following centers were in their prime who would you take and in what order (honestly, I'd like to know, post your order in the comments section...do it...c'mon)?
Shaquille O'neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Bob Pettit, Bob Lanier, Nate Thurmond, Wes Unseld, Alonzo Mourning, Moses Malone, Bill Walton, Dwight Howard
Regardless, this league is empty of centers. Let's do the same ranking game with current 5s in the league (post yours in the comments section).
Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat, Andrew Bogut, Nene, JaVale McGee, Al Horford (more of a 4), Anderson Varejao, Serge Ibaka, Joakim Noah, Andrew Bynum, Greg Monroe, Roy Hibbert, Omer Asik, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol.
FYI the above is in random order. Want better proof than just names? How about the max or near max deals shelled out in the past two summers to Roy Hibbert, Andrew Bynum, Brook Lopez, Tyson Chandler, Marc Gasol and the perceived nutty amount of money shelled out to Omer Asik (Another FYI, I like the Asik deal).
Why is this important? It shows how significant Dwight Howard really is. Teams are willing to spend boat loads of money on half-way decent centers, none of whom currently even sniff the jock strap of Mr. Howard.
Right I know....Howard is great. So What?
Well, now let's circle back to the original point, the Howard to Orlando deal.
Orlando dealt a future hall of famer who also plays the most sought after position in the league, who they knew they could not keep, for guard Arron Afflalo and forward Al Harrington from Denver and forward Moe Harkless and center Nikola Vucevic from Philadelphia and forward Josh McRoberts and guard Christian Eyenga from the Lakers. Sure they dealt the bad contracts of Chris Duhon and Jason Richardson (FYI, 3rd FYI of the post, J-Rich's deal isn't a bad one. More than likely last seasons's low 3 FG% of 36.8% was flukey considering it was the lowest since his rookie year), but also netted the bad contracts of Al Harrington and really Arron Afflalo who is paid way too much for an efficient, but low usage rate wing.
Now, OKC is kind of in a similar situation with Harden that Orlando was with Howard. There was no Dwightmare or in James' case, Hardened View, but the notion was the same. Up-coming free agent that will get max deal can't stay with current team. Harden's reasons seemed financial, Dwight's a bit douchier, more fame perhaps? Either way both teams needed to deal their respective talents.
The returns of the trades
So we saw what Orlando got in that deal. Odds are unless you follow the NBA religiously, you haven't heard of every player in that trade. If you're a casual fan, have you even heard of the main pieces in the deal?
Quick, 5 seconds, what teams have Arron Afflalo played for? Did you know that without Google-ing it? Well, either way, he was the main part of that Howard trade.
OKC received Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and a slew of draft picks in exchange for Harden. That's a much better return than what Orlando received for Dwight.
Sounds like a clear rip-off for Houston then, right?
Not so fast.
It's a bit different because Harden's issue was financial. He wanted more money. He wanted a MAX deal. He'll get one with Houston. So the Rockets, unlike the Lakers, know the player they received via trade will likely stay there long term.
Another factor, the 2-guard slot is perhaps just as scarce as the center slot in the league
Remember that center list from earlier?
Let's see the top shooting guards in the league today:
Kobe Bryant, Iggy, Joe Johnson, Dwayne Wade, Kevin Martin, James Harden, Paul George, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Manu Ginobili and I am struggling to find more names.
Pretty weak, especially when we compare it to other times in NBA history. This is true with centers as well.
Let's focus a bit more on the stud that is James Harden.
Three factors are crucial in a franchise player.
I won't go into all of the factors that go into a franchise player, but three main ones you want initially are young age, ability to occupy a decent portion of possessions, and either have a high true shooting percentage (TS%) or high assist rate (AR), both...nuch besser.
Harden is 23 years old - check
Harden occupied over 20% of OKC's possessions last year, bear in mind that's with Westbrook and Durant, two extremely high usage rate possessors on the roster. - check
Harden had a TS% of 66% last season (average is 52.7%) and AR of 24.7 (average is 19.2) - check on both.
To put that full list of very critical stats in perspective, no player in the league last season...not even LeBron James, combined a usage rate of over 20%, with a TS% of over 61% and an AR of over 24%. Oh, did I mention he's only 23.
Fact, James Harden inhibits skills that very few wings in this league have and is only now starting to enter his prime.
Did Houston make a good trade here? Aw hell yeah!
Not to trash OKC here, but they got a great deal as well considering their situation. They knew they could not afford Harden and were able to net quality replacements in Kevin Martin and a young Jeremy Lamb in this trade. Hell, they got several picks too! Not shabby.
Don't knock Houston or Harden here though. GM Daryl Morey made a slew of heavily criticized, but underrated moves this off-season in signing Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin (I'm not going to defend that in this post, but maybe another one. Quick snippet version, he'll sell out crowds and though his sample size was small last year, few players ever had that advanced stat line over a 26 game period) and now with the Harden deal.
James was masked a bit, being the 3rd banana in OKC's system and regulated to 6th man. He'll be a focal point for defenses in Houston. This could effect him a bit, sure, but still worth a nice calculated risk for Houston.
Final prediction: James Harden is that good, he's only 23 and in his first year he will lead the Rockets to the playoffs.
One mistake OKC may have made. Did they explore all options to really clear enough cap space to sign Harden to a max deal or did they simply not think he was worth such a large contract?
I would have explored Perkins or even Ibaka deals, to try and shed some salary and get cap back some talent in the process (how about Perkins for Pachulia, similar but worse talent, and nice salary shed...I think Atlanta does that too!).
Either way he's gone now, and perhaps so are OKC's title hopes. Now there's new hope in Houston and a young star to help lead the way. Can Harden be a number one guy? The advanced stats seem to say so and the system in Houston should cater to his skill set well.
Well done, Houston, well done.
No comments:
Post a Comment