You Just Got Forked - Basketball Purgatory

Basketball Purgatory: The NBA’s Version of No Man’s Land

Every season you have a small set of teams that are at the bottom and likely lottery bound and an even smaller amount that have a true chance at a championship.  In actuality, the 30 teams in the league can be classified in even more ways.
 

The New York Yankees

First off, you have your teams who believe they are title contenders.  This list consists not only of the legit title contenders (i.e. teams that GMs have voted to win the title, see previous post), but also of teams who have maxed out their cap space and are in title or bust mode.  If they don’t win the title the fans of those teams will be disappointed along with players and front office personnel alike.  This is also known as the Yankees every year. This list of course includes the Heat, Lakers and Thunder, but also the Celtics and Spurs.

Strategic Hopefuls

Now let’s check out the opposite side of the spectrum.  Yes, these may be lottery bound teams but they have a plan in place for the future.  These teams either have a lot of cap flexibility, hefty minute allocation towards their youth, or perhaps both.  A good name here are the Strategic Hopefuls due to a likely organized strategic way of trying to get themselves eventually back (or perhaps for the first time) to contention.  This list includes the Bobcats, Cavs, Magic, Kings, Pistons, Rockets, Hornets, Blazers and Suns (albeit unintentionally).

Some of you may say that it seems like you are either rebuilding or contending, well we’re not done with the groups yet.

Up and Comers

I know, real cliche title.  These teams have a solid youth core, perhaps some veterans, and seem poised to be title contenders…next year, or maybe the year after.  Still, kudos to their front office as they are likely going to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs and have a core that should be in the mix for the championship circa 2015.  Our potential ’15 title contenders are the Sixers, Pacers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Hawks and Jazz.

An Injury Away

Another real simple title here.  The following teams may have little cap flexibility, but they do have star power, pure talent and could flirt with a deep run in the playoffs.  Heck, if someone from a top team (Heat, Lakers, Thunder) get hurt they have a chance to catapult up to that Yankees list.  These teams are essentially an injury away, albeit from one of their competitors, of being a threat in the post season.  The teams that may look to hire a mobster to hurt either LeBron or Durant are the Knicks, Bulls (assuming Rose is healthy) and Clippers.

NBA Purgatory

Oh you didn't see your favorite team on any of the above list…uh oh.   

The in-betweeners, the stuck in the middlers, or how about the what the hell are you freakin doingers.  Whatever you want to call them, these teams are essentially in the worst situation of any group.  Too little cap flexibility or enough trade assets to make serious moves to become a contender and essentially too good to build through the draft or due to cap restraints, through free agency.  These are essentially fork in the road teams, except they are the fork.  Your forkers are the Wizards, Bucks, Mavericks, Warriors, Nets, and Raptors.

What went wrong?

These teams made some classic humanistic errors.  You can call them over-eager.  They were young at one point, had a surprise season and sniffed the playoffs.  Then their GMs went truly nutty and just spent their cap space too soon and showed tremendous impatience.

 

You can simply call them delusional.  They think they are more talented than they are, have set high standards and will get disappointed quickly as they already have tried spending their way to contention. The latter thinking is typically where you see firings occur.

Let’s hone in on each team and see what went wrong.

Golden State Warriors – Were they ever right?

The Warriors had only made the playoffs once since 1994.  More than half of the teams in the league make the playoffs in a season and the Warriors only made it one time in an 18 year span.  Here’s what likely went wrong.  In 1995, the Warriors had the first pick of the draft and selected Joe Smith, solid vet, but certainly not a star. Later in the 2000s they had a slew of top 10 picks, including several in the top 10, but Jason Richardson, Mike Dunleavy JR and Troy Murphy just became overpaid rotational talent.  Golden State essentially compounded their errors.  Not only did were they consistently not netting studs in the draft, but when their drafted players' contracts were up, they were paying them like franchise saviors.  Also, Golden State didn't strike out in the draft which is actually not a great thing.  Sounds strange right?  Well, the Warriors kept netting good, not great talent which would lead to a good, not great team.  Fast-forward to today the Warriors have a nice young core in place in Curry and Thompson but have over spent on injury prone or non star like vets in Bogut and Lee and thus lack the flexibility needed to really take the team to the next level.

Washington Wizards – Arenas wasn't the problem

The Wizards were almost there, they were so close. 

To a title? 

Heaven’s no...  To building a team the right way. 

They had extreme cap flexibility due to Rashard Lewis’ eventual expiring contract and had a plethora of young big men between Vesley, Booker, Seraphin and McGee who were improving talents.  Sure the team may have headed back to the lotto assuming no moves were made, but perhaps with a nice draft pick, strategically using their cap space in trades to net even more promising talent, the team could be contenders in a few seasons.  Too bad they jumped the gun. 

It is somewhat understandable dealing McGee due to his bone headed plays and bad karma with the team, but to get an aging, injury-prone center on a long contract who actually makes the team sniff .500 is not the greatest thing.  Like the Warriors, the Wizards compounded their errors.  Seeing that Nene made the team a legit 8^th seed, first round exit threat, management decided to go full throttle and added veterans Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor while dealing one of their most promising assets, Lewis’ massive expiring contract. 

This is the NBA’s form of P.E.

Mavs, Raptors, Nets  - I get it.

Dallas is aging and can’t deal their franchise loveable German just yet.  Keeping him; however, ensures the team is talented enough to at least sniff the playoffs, but can’t further develop any youth via minutes or touches.

The Raptors added Lowry which puts them in this list as well not to mention the contract shelled out to Bargnani.  This could be a GM trying to interview for his next job though.  Colangelo is on the last year of his deal and likely would like to at least show his team improved on his next job interview.

The Nets just moved to Brooklyn and are desperate to make some noise in the much hyped up move.  Their owner also has the money to blow and seems more than happy with a few sell outs and an early playoff exit.

Bucks – I don’t get it

The Bucks simply make little sense.  They have a high usage point guard who is trigger happy, so they pair him with a similar talent in Ellis?  Also, both are upcoming free agents.  They also have a plethora of young big men but shelled out cash to the never young Samuel Dalembert?!

These teams are never truly stuck as there are GMs out there who may take on an expensive aging vet for a title run and/or be interested in their youth for a chance at rebuilding.  The choice is up to these teams though to make sure they do such moves sooner rather than later.  Or else, they’ll end up like the Warriors…which sort of like the Yankees…seem to always say hey, fork it!