Gam Zeh L’Tova
Why the recent injury to Rondo is in a weird way is actually
great for the Celtics future.
Let me preface this post by saying the Celtics are better
overall with Rondo on the floor. Sure
some folks out there like the Celts’ play by play announcer Sean Grande have
pointed out how poor the team’s offensive efficiencies are this season with
Rondo and how he only shows up when the games are nationally televised.
Two very fair points.
It is true that when Rondo is on the court the rest of the
Celtics do a bit of ball watching which stunts the offense and that Rajon’s
inconsistent jump shot doesn’t help matters on the offensive end. Sean makes another great point as well
considering how Rajon only really shows up in big games. He can average a triple double in a playoff
series against the Bulls or put up 47 points in an Eastern Conference finals
game in Miami, but if there’s a Tuesday night showdown in Toronto expect Rondo
to play somewhat apathetically.
Given those fairly accurate statements, no one in their
right mind would indicate the Celtics are indeed better without Rondo. The team really doesn’t have any other pure
offensive creator and someone that can simply take over games the way he can,
even if it’s only when the Celts are playing when everyone’s watching. I’d probably rather have it that way than the
opposite. If you’re going to go off for
47, do it in the playoffs vs. against the Bobcats in November.
The Celts are tough minded team though with a veteran locker
room. It is very likely the team bands
together and makes a strong push in the playoffs and even advances in the
playoffs (if they don’t face Miami in round 1) if they decide to stand put.
Super strong IF there though.
If there’s one thing Danny Ainge preached when he came to
Boston it’s that he’s not afraid of making some big moves. Ask Antoine Walker, Kendrick Perkins and Al
Jefferson. If there’s one GM trait that
is strong with Ainge it’s the notion of self awareness.
Many general managers are unaware of the team’s current
state (Bryan Colangelo says hi) and either wait too long to deal some youth in
hopes of contending (remember those Blazers teams of a few years ago when it
was just all potential, but they were a 50 win team) or are too impatient and
deal valuable assets for veterans when the youth needs more time to gel (Ernie
Grunfeld of Washington says what’s up....Lewis’ fat expiring when the hefty CBA
provisions are about to kick in and you use it to net Ariza and Okafor…bleh….had
the Wizards still had Lewis wouldn’t they be major players to land Rudy Gay
from the cap conscience Grizzlies?...not a bad future side kick for Wall).
Not Danny Though.
Which is why he is going to make moves and likely deal Pierce and
Garnett (and maybe the Jet too…why not) this deadline. It’s time and Ainge also will likely learn
the lesson from Dumars waiting too long to deal their vets in Detroit. Quick history lesson, Detroit in 2008 loses
to Boston in 6 games in the Eastern Conference Finals. The next season they go through a tail spin,
hang onto the 8th seed only to enter the playoffs and get spanked by
the James and the Cavs. The team is getting old and featuring some
solid vets like Hamilton and Prince (Billups was dealt in that season for AI)
with some decent trade value. Dumars
essentially waits too long with these vets, who end up losing trade value and
eventually become salary dumps. The
Pistons inevitably rebuild too late and are now still in a long rebuilding
process due to the error of waiting by Joe.
Do Pierce and Garnett have any value?
They do to the right team.
It was already reported that the Clippers were interested in Garnett,
willing to trade Caron Butler and Eric Bledsoe for him. So teams are interested. Don’t sneeze too much at that value for
Garnett either. Bledsoe is one of the
more sought after young point guards in the league and could provide the
Celtics with a great starting point guard for their future (no Rondo?...I’ll
get to that in a second). Don’t get me
wrong, I don’t love that trade. Ultimately
for KG I’m looking at OKC who has Jeremy Lamb, Eric Maynor and Toronto’s first
round pick. I would love those assets in
a Garnett deal. I think OKC is realistic
and understands that their current lineup may win the West, but ultimately
falls to the Heat in a finals re-match (or has issues if they face the Clippers
in the playoffs). Garnett is a huge
piece that could easily place them over the top. Garnett for Perkins (need his contract to
make it work), Lamb and that Raptors 2013 pick would be mighty nice for Boston’s
future.
Next stop....beep beep Mr. Pierce.
We can look back at the Clippers and simply try and acquire
those some assets for Garnett with Terry included and Odom’s expiring coming
back. Yeah it’s crappy return for
Pierce, but his contract isn’t too sweet given his age and the tax
ramifications and the team needs a point guard for a potential leverage Rondo
deal on draft day 2013 (I’ll get to that).
A more realistic trade may be with Denver.
Wilson Chandler + JaVale McGee for Paul Pierce
Denver needs to consolidate their pieces a bit and find a
way to advance in the playoffs. Pierce
and Iggy could make a lot of sense at the wings together and could mean a nice
playoff run for Denver.
Return wise for the Celts? Not too earth shattering. The saving grace though is Boston adds pieces
that make a ton of sense long term with Rondo (if they want to keep him) and
net some two-way talent and flat out become a deep team.
If we assume the team is on board with the OKC and Denver
deals, here’s where we end up with (Rondo on the shelf):
PF B. Bass/ J. Green
SF W. Chandler/ J. Green
C J. McGee/ K. Perkins/ J.
Collins
SG A. Bradley/ J. Lamb
PG C. Lee/ L. Barbosa
IR R. Rondo, J. Sullinger
Feel free to move around some parts if you prefer the KG-Bledsoe trade
which was already offered FYI. Oh and if
you don’t love Perkins needing to be there, we can always ship him to Golden
State for Biedrins and a future pick.
That good Myers? Cool thanks.
Regardless of what deals you want for Pierce and KG, the idea is to get
younger and either have a team that can run with Rondo or set yourself up for a
full rebuild. Here we do both.
If you’re a Celtics fan that lineup above probably makes you want to
shilshul a bit. Totally understand. Heck, that team still has a decent total
salary, some nice potential sure, but not enough to rebuild.
Well…just like Rome wasn’t built in a day neither is a full-fledged
rebuild. Some time you need to deal a
veteran for a younger talent who several GMs enamor (you’d be surprised how
many GMs are actually secretly obsessed with Wilson Chandler for example).
The lineup above can easily be changed around on draft day and set the
Celts up in 2014 for a major tank for what is supposedly going to be a solid
draft featuring Andrew Wiggins and Jabaradi Parker.
I think that’s really the ultimate goal, to have a team ready for the
2014 tank.
Which brings us back to our original topic about Rondo. Is he really the future of the team? I think ultimately it makes sense to deal
Pierce and Garnett to get younger, but really just to get bad. Get some youth in the rotation and set
yourself up for a major trade fest either on draft night or next February and get ready for that 2014
draft. If that also means dealing Rondo…which
it likely does…then so long Rajon.
Look, the last time the Celtics tanked in 2007 they landed the 5th
pick in a top heavy draft, missing out on Oden and Durant. Yet, they were still able to use that pick to
land Ray Allen which then gave the team enough ammo to persuade KG to accept a
trade to Boston which of course led to their 17th title.
Tanking for the sake of tanking makes no sense. You want to tank this year for Cody Zeller…go
ahead, your netting a solid but not great future center…aka Meh City.
But if you tank in a year when the draft is supposed to be great. That tank job actually works (ask the Spurs in
’97, Orlando in ’92, Cleveland in ’03).
That is Boston’s ultimate path.
To quote chumbawumba “you get knocked, but you get up again”…and yes I
just ended the post by quoting tubthumping….because we’ll be singing when we’re
winning.
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