Mid-Season Awards & Juicy Predictions

Mid-Season Awards and Predictions

Yeah we had early season predictions, so adding a slew of mid-season ones seems kind of cheap.  Having said that, why not have some mid-season predictions/awards when more information has been accumulated?  Self, I agree…on to it.  Let’s start with the awards.

MVP

LeBron James

Honorable Consideration: Kevin Durant, Chris Paul

Dark Horse: Tony Parker

It’s really James’ award to lose.  The efficiency numbers with the volume of shots he’s taking is absolutely absurd.  Of course with Rose out for the first half, this has also seen the Heat stream roll in the Eastern Conference in the first half.  The only way he doesn’t end up winning this award is an injury or that old classic, voter fatigue, which allowed guys like Karl Malone to win an MVP over Jordan in the late 90s and Nash win it over Duncan earlier last decade.  An interesting side story may be how much love Tony Parker gets in MVP voting.  The Spurs are among the top teams in the West and Parker is producing his best season to date.  Durant is easily the favorite to be 2^nd in voting, but Parker could eventually get in the discussion if he continues this pace and the Spurs land the best record in the league at season’s end.  So, basically this is a watch for who wins second in MVP voting.

Coach of the Year

Mark Jackson

Honorable Consideration: Tom Thibadeu, Mike Woodson, Greg Poppovich

Dark Horse: Frank Vogel, Doc Rivers

If you told me, after watching him as a commentator say classic things like when asked “How do you pronounce Rajon’s name RAH-DJAWN or RAY-DJAWN? – “I never get it wrong, Rondo!” that Mark Action Jackson could win a coach of the year, I’d laugh in your face.  Truth is, is it really so outstanding?  We’ve seen some new-ish coaches randomly win it before like Byron Scott in New Jersey or Mike Brown in Cleveland.  I do think this is different and Mark does deserve much more credit and the ultimate COY accolade over those fellas from seasons past.  The main reason is Brown and Scott’s winning the award had more to do with the overall underratedness at the time of James and Kidd.  The main reason is how highly acclaimed are these coaches since winning the award?  Now, you have to be interested in some of the dark horse candidates who may emerge from the crowd.  Particularly Doc Rivers who has the Celts playing as well as anyone heading into the All Star break.  If the Celts keep that hot trend in the second half and manage to secure a top 4 seed I think he wins it.  Not a bad Vegas bet to place right now.

Most Improved Player

Brook Lopez

Honorable Mention: David Lee, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Jrue Holiday

Dark Horse: Carmelo Anthony, Grevias Vasquez

You may not find a bigger Brook Lopez hater than Eitan A Rosenberg.  The guy doesn’t rebound well for a big (i.e. rebounding rate), plays in adequate help defense and is always an injury waiting to happen. Having said all that even I cannot deny the clear improvements he’s made to his game.   Lopez has emerged as the Nets’ best player and is shockingly living up to the gaudy contract he signed in the off-season.  The Nets are even a dark horse to go deep in the playoffs and that’s with Lopez as the focal point.  Much respect is due at this point.  Golden State’s Lee could surprise some voters if the Warriors find a way to finagle a top 4 seed out West.  Also don’t discount Vasquez who at least wins the underrated fantasy draftee of the season.

Some other obvious awards:

Rookie of the Year – Damian Lillard

Lillard has led Portland into a playoff contender.  This is the same team that is giving Luke Babbitt and Jared Jeffries meaningful minutes on a consistent basis.

6^th Man of the Year – Jamal Crawford

Craw leads the league in 4^th quarter PPG.  That’s really the ultimate type of 6^th man. Someone who can close games for you on a consistent basis.

On to those juicy predictions:

Who Wins the Chip?

For all those Miami Heat fans, I say…yah likely…but ho ho hold on a second.

Yes, the Heat are favorites, but I’m not going to discount the Spurs.  San Antonio looked like favorites in the midst of last season’s playoff run until game 3 against OKC flipped them on their head.  I think if the Spurs can have the best record in the conference they could win the whole damn thing.  Harden was an enormous factor in the Thunder series against the Spurs last season and I also think the Spurs add another major piece (Al Jefferson perhaps) at the trade deadline.  For the sake of being bold, I’m calling the Spurs to win the championship.  Yep…classic voter fatigue syndrome here.

Surprise Team That Makes Deep Playoff Run

As much as I’d love to say the Celtics here I just don’t see it happening.  Boston is on a mighty nice run, but can they handle a New York, Brooklyn, Indiana in a first round series….ya know what they can.  That’s right, switching my response as I type.  I’m picking the Celts to surprise folks in the playoffs and emerge to the ECF.  The other Eastern teams simply don’t wow me minus the Bulls if Rose comes back healthy which is a fairly big if.  Bear in mind, the Celts did bypass the Bulls last season since Rose went down, so I do think if they met the Bulls in the playoffs Chicago wins the series.  Having said that, odds seem that the Bulls end with a 4 seed and a likely 2^nd round match up with the Heat.  If the Celts land a 6 or even 7 seed and a potential road to the ECF which only includes two of New York, Brooklyn, Indiana and Atlanta, I think an Eastern Conference appearance is not out of the realm of possibility.

Surprise Team That Loses In the First Round

The New York Knicks. They are still living off that ridiculously hot stretch from the first half of the season and have dropped off since STAT and Shump have returned to the lineup.  If Woodson can regain that early season magic and take Shump and Amare who don’t seem to fit in the rotation, out of it, then they’ll have a deep playoff run.  But if these trends continue they may just get bounced out of the first round.

Second Half Playoff Push Surprise

The Toronto Raptors.  Raps are 5-2 since the Gay deal and if they can magically muster another trade which simply removes Bargnani they may have the ammo for a nutty playoff run.  There’s also a likelihood that a current playoff team such as the Bucks, Celtics or even Hawks have a moderate to full fledged fire sale (Smith/KG/Pierce/Jennings are rumored in potential trades) that could leave a slot open for a team on the outside looking in to make the post season.

Biggest Disappointing Team for the Second Half

I’ll go with the Brooklyn Nets here only because I have shat on the Knicks enough in this post.  I just don’t see Lopez continuing his super-hot stretch and that the honey moon of PJ Carlisiemo may soon come to an end.  That doesn't mean the Nets fall out of the playoffs, but maybe they lose out on a home court seed and like the Knicks, potentially lose in the first round of the playoffs.

Biggest Disappointing Player in Second Half

How do I not say Carmelo Anthony here?  Sorry Knicks fans, but it’s a simple regression towards the mean.  Anthony has a career 52-53% True Shooting percentage and has had a 57% clip going in the beginning of the year which helped propel the Knicks early season success. Teams have also gotten a bit of the memo that the Knicks are going to chuck threes and that they need to match up a tallish/length SF ala Landry Fields and place him on Melo if he’s starting at the 4 rather than go with your typical bulky starting Power Forward.   Those shooting stats for Melo have already began to dip as have some notable plus minus numbers when playing alongside Amare or even Shumpert.  Unless New York deals those two or takes them out of the rotation it will hurt the Knicks and Melo’s overall game.  Of course in the end of the day, it shouldn't be Melo who you blame for New York’s potential failure, it should be management for not cashing in on Shump while his value is high and his fit is questionable at best.  Of course knowing New York media, they’ll dump on Melo real hard.

Surprise Player in Second Half

Josh Smith.  Yap calling it now. If I’m Atlanta how do I not trade Josh Smith?  With teams like the Suns and even Bucks expected to have gobs of cap space in the off-season and desperate to be going anywhere you better believe Mr. Smith may get that max contract he’s been coveting.  Not saying he’s worth the money, but knowing that information will certainly push the Hawks to move him.  If they do, I see a change of scenery being an immense help for Josh Smith.  Smith also plays for a contract on a new team which will likely increase his stat lines.  A pretty genius idea would be for the Spurs to get involved who do have Jackson’s expiring contract and a slew of underrated young talent in Leonard, Splitter and Blair.  Not sure how a specific trade may work considering the Hawks would like to move Horford to the 4 and perhaps net some young talent in return.  I would think though a Jackson/Splitter/Blair/Future pick for Josh Smith trade idea would certainly peek Atlanta’s interest and I don’t see a better deal out there for him than that.

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