Tuesday, February 12, 2013

NBA Deadline Deals Spectacular


It’s that time of year again – NBA trading deadline time.  Here are a slew of talents that are rumored to be on the move by next Thursday including potential suitors, what the team should do with him and who they’ll likely get for him.  Let’s get to it.

Josh Smith

Suitors: Nets, Raptors, Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs

Dark Horse: Wizards

What Atlanta Should Do: The Wizards should be a dark horse in a potential Josh Smith move.  The team is over .500 since Wall has come back and are missing a go to scorer to compliment Wall.  The team has a slew of mediocre assets including Seraphin, Vesley and even more mediocre in Booker and Crawford.  The question really is what is Atlanta looking for in an Atlanta deal?  You have to think they want a 5 to allow Horford to move to the 4 and assets couldn’t hurt in return.  With the assets mentioned and two 5s on the roster, Washington does have the pieces to make it happen and Smith would look nice long term in a Wizard uni.  Management in DC is also sweating a bit and GM Ernie G should get canned unless the team makes a bold move (yes desperation is a factor here).  Atlanta should seek a deal surrounding Nene, top 3 protected 2013 pick and one of Vesley, Booker or Singleton.  They net nice long term assets and get their dream of seeing what Horford can do at the 4.

What will likely happen:  While the Nets are acting like they aren’t desperate. They are damn desperate.  Mikhail Prokohov didn’t absorb the contracts of Joe Johnson and shell out for Lopez/D-Will and Crash to even finish in the second round.  He seriously wants to see the team in the Eastern Conference finals this season. He said so himself.  Having said that, GM King’s ass is on the line and he has already shown he is willing to move pieces and be aggressive when any talent that could make sense on the roster is available.  Humphries and Brooks shouldn’t be enough to land Smith, but King will likely add Taylor in there along with multiple picks and perhaps see if Wallace has any inkling of value on the open market.   I could see a three way with Utah where Wallace goes to Utah, Humphries, Brooks, Taylor, a 2015 1st rounder from Brooklyn and the worse of Utah’s 1st round picks in 2013 (they have theirs and likely Golden State’s) go to Atlanta, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams go to Brooklyn.

Paul Milsap

Suitors: Celtics, Knicks, Raptors, Cavaliers, Magic

Dark Horse: Nets

What Utah Should Do: The Jazz have certainly missed the boat on dealing the Milsap/Jefferson tandem and have waited until their values may not be lower due to their pending free agency. Unfortunately for Utah, many GMs don’t seem to value Milsap’s skills as much as yours truly (he’s freaking awesome!) and don’t have the glut of wings to sacrifice one in a move for Milsap. At this point in order to get a decent wing for their future such as Shumpert, Redick or even DeRozan, the Jazz will need to take back a bad contract such as Al Harrington, Andrea Bargnani or gasp…Amare Stoudemire.  Those wings aren’t worth it. I’d rather deal Big Al who has more value and actually look to retain Milsap in free agency and move forward with a 3 big rotation along with Favors/Kanter.  He’ll get more minutes as a result and with a contract in place his value could only increase in time for next deadline.

What will likely happen: I think Utah agrees to an extent with the above.  They are trying to deal Big Al and they may be hard pressed to get decent value for both bigs.  Paul fits better long term with their young bigs.  That’s not to say they won’t try real hard to deal him, but will ultimately not be willing to take one of the aforementioned albatross contracts to do so.  If the Nets are smart they stop their Smith chase and simply deal Hump and Brooks to net Milsap.

Al Jefferson

Suitors: Spurs, Pistons, Rockets

Dark Horse: Bucks

What Utah Should Do: The Spurs have already been involved in a rumored Jefferson deal and seem willing to deal Splitter in a move to get it done.  I think if your Utah you can involve Orlando in a 3 way deal and fairly easily net JJ Redick and Al Harrington in such a move.  Orlando would love Splitter long term and fully anticipate either dealing JJ or letting him walk in free agency.

What will likely happen: I think this deal honestly goes down.  Fits all three teams quite nicely, Blair could get involved as well.

Dwight Howard

Suitors: Nets

Dark Horse: Hawks

What Lakers Should Do: While the Lakers may listen to some offers, it would be quite foolish to deal Howard at this point especially with an injury to Gasol.  The Nets are really the only team that is confident he’d re-sign there following a trade and the best they could offer is Brook Lopez and Marshon Brooks.  That return wouldn’t improve matters in LA by any means and while Lopez has looked great this season, his lack of D and constant injuries need to be a concern long term.  Stand pat LA.

What will likely happen: A lot of noise, probably dominates deadline talk and nothing happens.  Atlanta should at least see if LA considers a Smith/Pachulia for Howard swap.  I mean why not? Smith is gone anyhow after the season and the team has been running the same middle playoff seed, can’t get past the 2nd round treadmill for what seems like forever.  If Howard comes back home and feels nostalgic maybe he and Horford are enough to come out of the East.  Can Miami or anyone really compete with that front line in the East? Its very unlikely, but Smith makes a ton of sense in LA with MDA…stranger things have happened.

Eric Gordon

Suitors: Timberwolves, Raptors, Suns

Dark Horse: Pistons

What New Orleans Should Do: Stay put…please.  Let this core gel a bit.  Gordon’s value has taken a hit lately due to a recent series of injuries which may have GMs worrying if he’s worth his price tag simply due to health concerns.  The truth is the Hornets have hovered around .500 since Gordon’s return and the core is too promising to break up at this point.

What will likely happen:  I think some teams take several stabs at him, including the Raptors offering Bargnani+DeRozan+future pick, but ultimately he stays put.  Detroit would be wise to get involved at this bargain offer.  A Drummond/Calderon expiring and 2013 pick would be a hard offer not to accept if your New Orleans.  Monroe/Gordon/Knight is mighty nice long term in Detroit.  Too bad it wont happen.

Kevin Garnett

Suitors: Clippers, Spurs, Thunder

Dark Horse: Nets

What the Celts Should Do: The Thunder really are the most sensible team in a potential Garnett move.  They have Jeremy Lamb, Eric Maynor and Toronto’s 2013 pick they could potentially offer in a move.  Plus such a move would mean old favorite Kendrick Perkins likely comes back to Boston who is best buddies with Rondo.  The Celts have been playing well of late, but odds are they still don’t go beyond the 2nd round in the off-season and do run a risk that KG retires at season’s end.


What will likely happen: KG stays put.  I know…it’s getting boring all these guys are staying put.  I just don’t see a team offering more than the Clippers’ offer of Bledsoe and short contracts.  That’s not enough to wet Ainge’s beak at the deadline.

Paul Pierce

Suitors: Nuggets, Clippers

Dark Horse: Warriors

What the Celts Should Do: The only team that really could make sense is Denver, but is there offer of Wilson Chandler and JaVale McGee enough?  It might be, but that deal will be there most likely on draft night, so why not make one last playoff push in Boston?

What will likely happen: You really never know with Ainge, if Denver offered Chandler + McGee for Pierce I could see Ainge doing such a deal.  It all depends if the Celts deal KG.  Boston either deals both KG and Pierce or neither.  Since it’d be hard to deal both odds are he’s staying put, but I do believe both won’t be Celtics in 2014 (KG either retires of gets dealt, Pierce gets traded to the Clippers).

Andrea Bargnani

Suitors: Bulls, Lakers

Dark Horse: Nets, Pistons

What the Raptors Should Do: With Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan and Lowry in their backcourt, the last thing this roster needs is more scorers.  Raptors have a lot of dependency on 4/5 Amir Johnson.  There really isn’t anyone else on the roster who can adequately rebound, defend the paint and give you more than 25 minutes in the process.  Toronto should seek Humphries in such a deal who would fill in that role and be a better fit considering their core.

What will likely happen: I think Bargnani gets traded.  To where is really the biggest question right now.  He may be the hardest player to predict where he gets moved at the deadline.  Rumors have Chicago in the mix which may make sense if the Bulls want to save some cap.  Would a Bargnani/Fields for Gasol deal be out of the realm of possibility?  I don’t think so.  He makes the most sense on the Lakers truth be told and who is more desperate than LAL right now?  For Toronto, their playoff hopes are seeing less and less likely.  I don’t think Gasol’s injury is the biggest detriment in a trade.  Toronto could start next season with a decent chance at a top 4 seed if Gasol is healthy.  Where he goes it will be a surprising deal, but he will get moved.
Iman Shumpert

Suitors: Suns, Bucks, Jazz

Dark Horse: Magic

What the Knicks Should Do: Phoenix seems to want Shump fairly badly as he would be a nice fit long term in Hunter’s defensive system (can you have a system after 2 weeks?).  The Suns are underrating defensive guru and efficient spacing wing Jared Dudley and may be willing to attached a top 3 protected 2013 pick along with him in a deal.  If your NYK, make the deal because Dudley actually makes more sense with the current roster and odds are Glen Grunwald will net a player with eventual higher market value than Shump with a top 10 pick in 2013.

What will likely happen: Glen is one of the more underrated GMs in the league.  He has made some brilliant under the radar signings in the off-season and it would not surprise me if he cashes in on Shump’s value while it is this high.  I do believe either the aforementioned Phoenix deal, or perhaps a Utah deal to net Milsap is not out of the realm of possibility for New York.

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