NBA Story Lines Down The Stretch

Story lines Worth Keeping an Eye On      

As the second half, or really the latter third, of the NBA season is in full swing we can’t help but notice several story lines we need to keep an eye on.

LA’s Playoff Push

I hate writing about the Lakers, but it is starting to seem their playoff push is coming to fruition.  Utah and Houston are clinging to the 7^th and 8^th seed, but it is appearing more likely that the Lakers will jump one of them into the post season.

The Jazz are the more likely candidates to fall out of the picture given their awful point guard depth which has left their crunch time decision making to the young wings of Alec Burks and Gordon Heyward.  Their starting PG last night was Earl Watson and it has typically been Jamaal Tinsley.  Side note, literally every team in the entire league has TWO point guards better than those two of the Jazz (some have four such as the Pistons with Calderon, Knight, Stuckey and Bynum.  I’m writing this on a bus, so I don’t really have a good research tool.  The only second string point guards who are worse than either Earl or JT are Chris Duhon of the Lakers….and….nope, I’d rather have Livingston and Jeremy Pargo….rather have Toney Douglas, Beno Udrih, Ish Smith, John Lucas III and AJ Price.  (If you know of a worse PG rotation than the current Utah PG rotation over the last 20 years, place it in the comments below.)

Also, if the Lakers do get the 8^th seed that really sucks for the Spurs.  In recent memory the Spurs always kick ass in the regular season and get screwed with a terrible 1^st rd match up.  The Grizzlies were just a bad team for them to go against and facing a hot Lakers team may not be much better either.

Paul Pierce Finding the Fountain of Youth

Have you seen recent Celtic box scores lately?  Ya know the ones that show Pierce flirting with a triple double on a nightly basis like it’s a girl who’s into sternum scars from across the room (too soon?).

With no PG in tow Pierce has had to take the role of play maker and has done a remarkable job doing so.  Obviously he and KG form a very efficient pick and roll tandem, but Paullie is also doing a solid job getting the likes of Green, Bradley and Lee going offensively.  What’s most impressive of all is how the added play making responsibilities have not hampered Pierce physically as his minute total has seen a sharp increase since Rondo’s injury.

Nobody Beats the Wiz

Since the return of Wall the Wizards are well over .500 and Bradley Beal has looked like a ROY candidate as a result.  Washington’s lineup finally makes sense in the half court with an already established post and kick game with Nene/Okafor commanding double teams in the post, and now a slash and kick game with Wall’s arrival.  All of this has meant more “kick outs” for Beal to take full advantage.

Is Dirk Done?

Nobody has really talked about Dallas’ pretty steep decline this season.  The thought was that with Dirk’s injury the excuses were there.  The interesting thing is; however, Dirk’s return has not helped the Mavs much.  Dallas has a similar record pre and post Nowitzki’s return and are bracing for a huge shopping spree in the off-season, but who can they lure to play next to the quickly declining Nowitzki.

Can Bogut Give the Dubs Anything?

Andrew Bogut must be the most frustrating player to have on your roster.  When he gets healthy and gives you even 25 MPG, the impacts on both ends of the floor are enormous.  Bogut is a very underrated passing big man who commands double teams and can easily find open shooters like Curry, Thompson, Barnes and Jack on the perimeter.  Defensively, he has always been part of one of the league’s top 10 defensive units and has had rebounding rates in the top 10% of 4/5s in the league…again all when healthy.

It seemed roughly a month ago Bogut turned a corner.  The Warriors were coming back to Earth a bit record wise, but Bogut’s return helped propel their winning ways further.  Now Andrew is on the shelf again.  If he can make it back to full strength by the playoffs, the Warriors have a solid chance at winning a 1^st round matchup.  No Bogut, no second round.

Wait… So Are the Kings Moving?

I am confused here, can someone help me out?  I thought the Kings were headed to Seattle, changing their name to Sonics and bringing back Shawn Kemp for Emahot night.   Now it seems Sacramento had raised some funding or something to get a new arena in order to save the team, right?  Why is Stern allowing this?

No offense Sacramento fans, aka no one who reads this, you shouldn’t have an NBA team.  Sacramento is close enough to Oakland/SF area and just doesn’t have the wealth, population or general basketball  care to have an NBA team.  Yes, they used to sell out the Arco Arena, but that was when the Kings kicked ass earlier last decade and were the most entertaining team to watch.  They would've sold out if they were in Wyoming.

Seattle got screwed over big time in the OKC move and the process must come full circle so that Seattle can screw over another team to retrieve an NBA team.  Bring the Kings to Seattle, if nothing else to hear the millions of comparisons from Cousins to Kemp (attitude, similar style if you look at older Kemp).

Will Granger's Return Make the Pacers a Threat to Beat the Heat?

In short, no.  Hibbert is really the main player that can dominate a series against the Heat, given the team's weaknesses on the interior.  If he can pull together a decent stretch towards the playoffs and prove his worth as a main post threat…maybe….maybe they lose in 7.

Can the Raps make the Playoffs after starting 4-19?

Toronto has been pretty smokin’ since the Gay deal…and yes that trade was a bit off the 180 degree path.   The interesting notion is though that Rudy Gay’s play has been pretty dreadful as a Raptor.  His TS% is sub 50%, yet his usage rate tips 30% on most nights.  Sounds like a recipe for high usage, sub par efficiency.  So how is Toronto doing this?

The emergence of DeMar has been particularly surprising since Gay’s arrival.  The surprise is that both Gay and DeMar are pretty similar talents, slash heavy wings who demand a high percentage of possessions and can’t shoot too well from the perimeter.  In all honesty, I thought this deal was DOA due to the redundancy of wing talent.  How would one ever compliment the other?

Yet Toronto is doing it.  It is mainly due to DeMar now finally within his correct usage rate, a little over 20%.  There’s also less attention on DeMar which allows for him to accelerate to the lane off a Gay double team and head to the free throw line.  The correct usage rate theory has also helped Kyle Lowry, who may be playing a bit too passively for my liking, but is still picking his spots offensively and not forcing the offense on his own either.

So one bad (Gay) is actually producing two positives.  That and Bargnani has seen a reduction in minutes.  

That always helps.

So, can Toronto continue and make the playoffs?  They are 6 games behind the Bucks at this point, but have one of the easier schedules the rest of the way.  I think it comes down to Friday night’s game against the Pacers and then obviously Saturday night in Milwaukee.  They sweep the weekend, their in, they don’t…everyone may get fired.  If you think about it, it may be the most desperate situation in the league…more so than the Lakers.

EDIT: Actually...I started writing this last night prior to Toronto taking the court in Cleveland and the Bucks playing in Houston.  I thought the Raps could beat an Irving-less Cavs team and the Bucks would falter against the up tempo Rockets.  Looks like the script flipped, causing what should have been a 4 game trail of the 8th seeded Bucks to now a whopping 6 games.  That seems like an insurmountable amount to overcome with only 24 games left.

What a weird way to publish a post.  I wrote this on the bus back from work last night and realized this morning that I forgot to publish it, so I re-read some of the stuff and had to mention that edit.  Sorry for the awkwardness.